Tennis bets today: Five picks for Saturday ft. Fils vs. Kotov [10/10/2026]

ATP Shanghai Masters: Pavel Kotov ML (+740)

• Edge: 4.7%
• Probability: 14%
• Matchup: Arthur Fils vs. Pavel Kotov (3:25AM ET)

Our model has identified value on Pavel Kotov to defeat Arthur Fils at +740 odds in their matchup at ATP Shanghai Masters. A 14% probability produces an edge of 4.7%, making this the strongest play for today's tennis slate.

ATP Shanghai Masters: Botic Van de Zandschulp ML (+178)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 39.1%
• Matchup: Botic Van de Zandschulp vs. Alex Michelsen (5:00AM ET)

At ATP Shanghai Masters, Botic Van de Zandschulp ML carries a 4.0% edge and a probability of 39.1% at +178 odds, according to our model.

ATP Shanghai Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Juan Cerundolo Under 18.5 total games (-105)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 54.3%
• Matchup: Juan Cerundolo vs. Carlos Alcaraz (6:00AM ET)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Juan Cerundolo Under 18.5 total games at -105 odds shows a 3.0% edge, supported by a 54.3% probability in simulations of the ATP Shanghai Masters match.

ATP Shanghai Masters: Adolfo Vallejo ML (+172)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 35.8%
• Matchup: Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Vallejo (4:40AM ET)

A 2.9% edge and 35.8% probability makes Adolfo Vallejo at the moneyline a value play in the Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Vallejo matchup, per our model.

ATP Shanghai Masters: Ignacio Buse ML (+153)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 41.8%
• Matchup: Ignacio Buse vs. Zizou Bergs (4:20AM ET)

Ignacio Buse ML at +153 presents a 2.5% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 41.8%.

Tennis best bets summary: Saturday, 10/10/2026

As of 3:04AM ET, here are our top tennis bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming tennis matches to bet on now

• ATP Shanghai: Casper Ruud vs. Yunchaokete Bu (3:10AM ET, Saturday)
• ATP Shanghai: Pavel Kotov vs. Arthur Fils (3:25AM ET, Saturday)
• ATP Shanghai: Zachary Svajda vs. Learner Tien (3:30AM ET, Saturday)
• ATP Shanghai: Zizou Bergs vs. Ignacio Buse (4:20AM ET, Saturday)
• ATP Shanghai: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Luciano Darderi (4:35AM ET, Saturday)
• ATP Shanghai: Adolfo Vallejo vs. Tommy Paul (4:40AM ET, Saturday)
• ATP Shanghai: Alex Michelsen vs. Botic Van de Zandschulp (5:00AM ET, Saturday)
• ATP Shanghai: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Juan Cerundolo (6:00AM ET, Saturday)
• ATP Shanghai: Valentin Vacherot vs. Sebastian Baez (7:10AM ET, Saturday)

Conclusion

Our tennis best bets are locked and loaded for October 10, 2026, featuring plays such as Pavel Kotov ML vs. Arthur Fils and Botic Van de Zandschulp ML. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.