Alejandro Tabilo vs. Pablo Carreno Busta prediction, odds, picks for ATP Shanghai Masters 2026

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's Tabilo-Carreno Busta men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Tabilo a 57% chance of beating Carreno Busta at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament. Additionally, Tabilo has a 57% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Carreno Busta (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Pablo Carreno Busta +150, Alejandro Tabilo -172
• First Set: Tabilo -164, Carreno Busta +130

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Carreno Busta @ +150 via DraftKings
• First Set: Carreno Busta @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Pablo Carreno Busta to win.

Although Carreno Busta is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Shanghai Masters match between Alejandro Tabilo and Pablo Carreno Busta is scheduled to commence on Saturday at 1:10 AM ET.

• Who: Alejandro Tabilo vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:10 AM ET/10:10PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Shanghai, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 64

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Alejandro Tabilo, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat Pablo Carreno Busta at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.