Daniil Medvedev vs. Jan-Lennard Struff prediction, odds, picks for ATP Shanghai Masters 2026

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's Medvedev-Struff men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Medvedev an 83% chance of defeating Struff at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament. Additionally, Medvedev has a 78% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 54% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Jan-Lennard Struff +500, Daniil Medvedev -671
• First Set: Medvedev -455, Struff +333

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Struff @ +500 via DraftKings
• First Set: Struff @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Shanghai Masters match between Daniil Medvedev and Jan-Lennard Struff is scheduled to begin on Saturday at 12:00 AM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Shanghai, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 64

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with an 83% win probability, will likely beat Jan-Lennard Struff at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.