Matteo Berrettini vs. Alex de Minaur prediction, odds, picks for ATP Vienna Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's Berrettini-de Minaur men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives de Minaur a 62% chance of winning against Berrettini at the ATP Vienna Open tournament. Additionally, de Minaur has a 59% chance of winning the first set, while the under 24.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Alex de Minaur -226, Matteo Berrettini +182
• First Set: Berrettini +150, de Minaur -189

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Berrettini @ +182 via DraftKings
• First Set: de Minaur @ -130 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Matteo Berrettini to win.

Although Berrettini is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Vienna Open match between Matteo Berrettini and Alex de Minaur is scheduled to commence on Friday at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Matteo Berrettini vs. Alex de Minaur
• Date: Friday, October 30, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00 PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Vienna, Austria Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Alex de Minaur, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat Matteo Berrettini at the ATP Vienna Open tournament.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.