Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction, odds, picks for ATP Vienna Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's Paul-Alcaraz men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Alcaraz a 78% chance of defeating Paul at the ATP Vienna Open tournament. Additionally, Alcaraz has a 72% chance of winning the first set, while the under 21.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Carlos Alcaraz -379, Tommy Paul +340
• First Set: Paul +250, Alcaraz -333

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Paul @ +340 via DraftKings
• First Set: Alcaraz @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Vienna Open match between Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled to commence on Friday at 10:00 AM ET.

• Who: Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz
• Date: Friday, October 30, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 AM ET/7:00 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Vienna, Austria Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat Tommy Paul at the ATP Vienna Open tournament.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.