Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction, odds, picks for ATP Vienna Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's Basilashvili-Alcaraz men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Alcaraz an 82% chance of defeating Basilashvili at the ATP Vienna Open tournament. Additionally, Alcaraz has a 76% chance of winning the first set, while the under 20.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Carlos Alcaraz -820, Nikoloz Basilashvili +640
• First Set: Basilashvili +333, Alcaraz -455

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Basilashvili @ +640 via DraftKings
• First Set: Alcaraz @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Nikoloz Basilashvili to win.

Although Basilashvili is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Vienna Open match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 10:00 AM ET.

• Who: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Carlos Alcaraz
• Date: Thursday, October 29, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 AM ET/7:00 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Vienna, Austria Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 82% win probability, will likely beat Nikoloz Basilashvili at the ATP Vienna Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.