Tommy Paul vs. Daniel Merida prediction, odds, picks for ATP Paris Masters 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Paul-Merida men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Paul a 76% chance of defeating Merida at the ATP Paris Masters tournament. Additionally, Paul has a 72% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Paul (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 53% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Daniel Merida +380, Tommy Paul -400
• First Set: Paul -278, Merida +220

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Merida @ +380 via DraftKings
• First Set: Merida @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Daniel Merida to win.

Although Merida is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Paris Masters match between Tommy Paul and Daniel Merida is scheduled to commence on Wednesday at 6:30 AM ET.

• Who: Tommy Paul vs. Daniel Merida
• Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
• Approx. Time: 6:30 AM ET/3:30 AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Paris, France Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Tommy Paul, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat Daniel Merida at the ATP Paris Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.