Caitlin Clark, Fever face elimination vs. Aces in Game 2

Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever host the Las Vegas Aces on Tuesday needing a win to keep their season alive.

Las Vegas beat Indiana 102-85 in Game 1 on Sunday to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-three first-round series, so the Fever must win at home to force a deciding Game 3 in Las Vegas, with tipoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET in Indianapolis on Amazon Prime Video.

Clark finished the opener with 15 points and 10 assists but shot 6-of-17 from the field and committed six turnovers. Our WNBA predictions model expects more from her in Game 2. Dimers projects Clark for 23.3 points and 9.1 assists, and it gives the Fever moneyline and Fever -1.5 the High Edge label for Tuesday's must-win game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

How the Aces controlled Game 1

Four-time MVP A'ja Wilson did most of the damage. She scored a playoff career-high 38 points on 15-of-19 shooting, and she also had 16 rebounds and four blocks on the same day she was named AP WNBA Player of the Year for a third straight season. Las Vegas shot 59.4 percent from the field. All-Star guards Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young combined for 35 points and 18 assists.

The Aces built a 62-47 halftime lead and never had to protect it. Indiana turned the ball over 16 times, and Las Vegas scored 28 points off those turnovers. Clark afterward graded the team's defense an "F."

Indiana's two lead guards also shot poorly. Clark and Kelsey Mitchell went a combined 10-for-33 from the field and 4-for-16 from 3-point range. Aliyah Boston led the Fever with 18 points, and Sophie Cunningham scored 13 off the bench.

What to expect from Caitlin Clark tonight

Our WNBA player projections have Clark for 23.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 9.1 assists, and 3.1 made 3-pointers, for a combined 36.7 points, rebounds, and assists. The same projection lists 5.0 turnovers, close to her six in Game 1. That means most of the expected improvement comes from her scoring. Clark came into the playoffs averaging 22.3 points and 8.3 assists, so the projection sits slightly above her usual output.

Our projected box score has Mitchell leading Indiana with 25 points, Clark next with 23 points and nine assists, and Boston adding 16 points and eight rebounds. For Las Vegas, it projects Wilson for 24 points and nine rebounds and Young for 18 points and eight assists.

Clark should be available. The Fever listed her as probable with a back injury. Boston is also probable with a lower right leg injury, while Damiris Dantas and Ty Harris are out.

Fever vs. Aces best bets for Game 2

Three game markets for Game 2 carry a High Edge rating on our Fever vs. Aces page. Prices were last updated at 10:47 p.m. ET on Sept. 28.

The Fever moneyline has the biggest edge. Our model gives Indiana a 60.2% chance to win, and the best available price of 53 cents implies about 53%. The gap between those numbers is the edge.

The under is harder to back using Game 1 alone. Sunday's game finished with 187 total points, which is above Tuesday's 183.5 total. The model expects a slower game, but one more fast-paced shootout would beat that number.

Prices can move before tipoff, so compare the current line against these probabilities before you bet.

The Fever have been here before

A year ago Indiana was in the same spot in the first round. The Fever lost Game 1 of their 2025 series to the Dream 80-68 in Atlanta, then won Game 2 at home 77-60 and won Game 3 on the road to reach the semifinals. Clark missed that entire series with injury, so Tuesday is her first elimination game in this situation. wnba

The Fever have also played Las Vegas well this season. Indiana won two of three regular-season meetings, although the Aces won the last two. The Fever are 15-7 at home. They also finished as the league's top-scoring team at 96.0 points per game.

If Indiana wins, Game 3 moves to Las Vegas on Thursday, Oct. 1, with tipoff time to be announced.