Best WNBA bets today: Sunday's picks include Fire vs. Mercury play [8/16/2026]
Get WNBA picks today and best bets for Sunday, August 16, 2026.
Today’s best WNBA bets for August 16, 2026 are here, with Fire vs. Mercury and Fever vs. Dream among the top plays identified by our model across Sunday’s WNBA schedule.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, searching the latest WNBA odds to find legitimate betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of WNBA best bets today [8/16, updated 4:56AM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s WNBA best bets, ranked by edge for Sunday, August 16, 2026.
Mercury ML (-186)
- Edge: 8.4%
- Probability: 73.4%
- Matchup: Fire vs. Mercury (7:00PM ET)
Our model has identified value on Mercury to defeat Fire at -186 odds. A 73.4% probability produces an edge of 8.4%, making this the strongest play for today's WNBA slate.
Dream ML (-115)
- Edge: 8.3%
- Probability: 61.8%
- Matchup: Fever vs. Dream (5:00PM ET)
Dream ML carries an 8.3% edge and a probability of 61.8% at -115 odds, according to our model.
Sky vs. Storm Under 178.5 points (-104)
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 57.2%
- Matchup: Sky vs. Storm (5:00PM ET)
Sky vs. Storm Under 178.5 points at -104 odds shows a 6.2% edge, supported by a 57.2% probability in simulations.
Mercury -5.5 (+104)
- Edge: 5.4%
- Probability: 54.5%
- Matchup: Fire vs. Mercury (7:00PM ET)
A 5.4% edge and 54.5% probability makes Mercury -5.5 vs. Fire a value play in the Fire vs. Mercury matchup, per our model.
Dream -1.5 (-104)
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 56%
- Matchup: Fever vs. Dream (5:00PM ET)
Dream -1.5 at -104 odds presents a 5.0% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 56%.
Fever vs. Dream Under 187.5 points (-102)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 55.3%
- Matchup: Fever vs. Dream (5:00PM ET)
Our model finds value on Under 187.5 points in Fever vs. Dream at -102 odds, supported by an edge of 4.8%.
Sky ML (-117)
- Edge: 2.5%
- Probability: 56.4%
- Matchup: Sky vs. Storm (5:00PM ET)
Our model has uncovered value on Sky-Storm to finish as a tie after 90 minutes at -117 odds. A 56.4% probability produces a 2.5% edge, making this a strong play for today's WNBA action.
WNBA best bets summary: Sunday, 8/16/2026
As of 4:56AM ET, here are our top WNBA bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire vs. Mercury | Mercury ML | -186 @ Polymarket | 8.4% | 73.4% |
| Fever vs. Dream | Dream ML | -115 @ Novig | 8.3% | 61.8% |
| Sky vs. Storm | Under 178.5 Points | -104 @ Polymarket | 6.2% | 57.2% |
| Fire vs. Mercury | Mercury -5.5 vs. Fire | +104 @ Polymarket | 5.4% | 54.5% |
| Fever vs. Dream | Dream -1.5 | -104 @ Polymarket | 5.0% | 56% |
| Fever vs. Dream | Under 187.5 Points | -102 @ Novig | 4.8% | 55.3% |
| Sky vs. Storm | Sky ML | -117 @ Novig | 2.5% | 56.4% |
List of upcoming WNBA games to bet on [8/16/2026]
- Fever vs. Dream (5:00PM ET, Sunday)
- Sky vs. Storm (5:00PM ET, Sunday)
- Fire vs. Mercury (7:00PM ET, Sunday)
Elevate Your Betting Game With Dimers Pro
Unlock the full power of our best bets with Dimers Pro. Watch this explainer video to see how it can elevate your betting game.
Conclusion
Our WNBA best bets are locked and loaded for August 16, 2026, featuring plays such as Mercury ML vs. Fire and Dream ML. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
