Ball State vs. UMass prediction: Why Massachusetts is favored to win Week 10 MACtion clash

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Ball State vs. UMass, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Massachusetts a 57.7% chance of beating Ball State. Our predicted final score has Massachusetts winning 26-23. According to our model, Massachusetts (-2.5) has a 53.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 48.5-point over/under has a 54.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Ball State +2.5 (+125) / UMass -2.5 (-127)
• Moneyline: Ball State +150, UMass -153
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-115/+108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Ball State +2.5 @ 45¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Ball State @ 40¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 48.5 @ 53¢ via Novig

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Ball State to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Wednesday's college football action between UMass and Ball State at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Ball State vs. Massachusetts
• Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT
• Venue: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Massachusetts, with a 57.7% win probability, will likely beat Ball State in Wednesday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary college football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.