The 6 most important ranked College Football matchups in Week 4

Saturday's college football betting slate has six games featuring two ranked teams, and with almost every other ranked team favored by double digits, they're the ones most likely to move the rankings and have the biggest college football betting impact, from Texas vs. Tennessee to Ole Miss and LSU looking to climb higher.

Of the games with only one ranked team, every one of them, except No. 15 Utah (-7.5) at Iowa State, has a double-digit spread. So if the Top 25 changes much this weekend, it will almost certainly be because of these six games.

As always, Dimers' college football predictions model has simulated each game 10,000 times to estimate win probabilities and projected scores.

Here's what it expects from each matchup, and the players you need to keep an eye on.

No. 1 Texas (-5.5) at No. 14 Tennessee

Kickoff: 12:00 PM ET

The day starts with the top-ranked team in the country when Tennessee hosts Texas.

Texas makes its first trip to Knoxville, and Arch Manning plays in the stadium where his uncle Peyton became a legend.

Manning still has something to prove on the road. He completed just 57.7% of his passes in five true road games last season. Tennessee is 3-0, starting five-star freshman Faizon Brandon in his first SEC game against one of the best defenses he'll face all year.

Dimers gives Texas a 65% chance to win and projects a 30-25 Longhorns victory.

That's right in line with the -5.5 spread and 54.5 total, so the model sees no value in the game lines.

Some touchdown value in Texas vs. Tennessee.

The most value is in the touchdown markets, with Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop and Texas wide receiver Cam Coleman each featuring model edges in multiple touchdown markets, with Bishop scoring in every game so far, and Coleman logging a pair of 2 TD games.

No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 21 Florida (-3.5)

Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET

Ole Miss moved into the top five after beating LSU 32-24 last week and now goes after another ranked win in Florida vs. Mississippi.

Florida is 3-0 in its first season under Jon Sumrall and gets its first real chance to show it belongs. Both offenses are among the most productive in the country, with Florida averaging more than 540 yards per game.

Our model laregely agrees with the sportsbooks here, with our spread, moneyline and total probaiblities all within 1% of the markets.

Dimers gives Florida a 62% chance to win and projects a 31-28 Gators victory, which lands right on Florida -3.5 and the 59.5 total.

Where the model does differ is in how the game gets there.

It seems to expect a run-heavy game, with edges on Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy and Florida running back Duke Clark to score, while also identifying value in several passing game unders, including Florida QB Aaron Philo and two Ole Miss receivers.

However, keep an eye on Lacy's status before kickoff. He's a game-time decision after hurting his shoulder against LSU, which could put even more of the weight on QB Trinidad Chambliss' shoulders.

No. 17 Iowa at No. 18 Michigan (-5.5)

Kickoff: 3:30 PM ET

Michigan vs. Iowa is a Big Ten game between two unbeaten teams, and the winner gets a real boost in the playoff race.

Michigan's offense has been inconsistent in Kyle Whittingham's first season, and the Wolverines have fumbled six times in three games, but its defense has stayed strong. On the flip side, Iowa QB Hank Brown hasn't turned the ball over yet, but he hasn't played in an atmosphere like the Big House.

The total of 38.5 is the lowest of these six games, and our model thinks it's too low.

Dimers gives the Over a 57.1% chance, the highest probability for any Over on this list, projecting a 24-17 Michigan victory and giving the Wolverines a 69% chance to win.

Perhaps as a direct result of Michigan's high win probability, the best touchdown value is on the Iowa side as running back Kamari Moulton has a 39% probability to score.

No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 10 LSU (-9.5)

Kickoff: 7:30 PM ET

It's a bit of a redemption game in Texas A&M vs. LSU as both teams are coming off losses. LSU lost on Ole Miss' final possession, and Texas A&M dropped 15 spots in the poll after a 31-21 upset loss to Kentucky.

Another loss this early would significantly hurt either team's playoff chances.

Dimers gives LSU a 76% chance to win at home and projects a 31-22 Tigers victory, which is right around the 9.5-point spread

We have a slight lean to the Over 51.5 at a 52.6% probability, but that isn't enough to be a betting edge.

The value is in the player markets as LSU running back Dilin Jones has value in the touchdown ladder markets (anytime up through 3+), and two Texas A&M pass catchers have an edge to score the first touchdown.

No. 20 Oregon (-2.5) at No. 12 USC

Kickoff: 7:30 PM ET

Kicking off at the same time is Oregon vs. USC, and Oregon can't afford a second loss after Oklahoma State upset the Ducks 39-31 two weeks ago, a game in which Dante Moore completed just 14 of 29 passes.

USC is 4-0, and Jayden Maiava has thrown 12 touchdowns with one interception while completing 75.7% of his passes. The Trojans are trying to beat Oregon for the first time since 2016.

Dimers' model expects a shootout. Our projected 32-29 Oregon victory is the highest-scoring result of these six games, with a margin of just three points

We predict Oregon with a 61% chance to win, and our numbers are close to both the -2.5 spread and the 61.5 total.

Each team has a player with an edge to score the first touchdown, one at +1300 and another at +2500, but it's only WR Evan Stewart who has edges in three touchdown markets after scoring in back-to-back weeks.

No. 19 Missouri at No. 24 Mississippi State (-6)

Kickoff: 7:45 PM ET

Just two years ago, Mississippi State went 2-10; they're now 3-0 and ranked heading into Missouri vs. Mississippi State.

Quarterback Kamario Taylor has been a big part of that turnaround and leads the SEC with 11 passing touchdowns. Missouri is also unbeaten under QB Austin Simmons, but the Tigers now have to deal with Taylor on the road.

Dimers gives Mississippi State a 68% chance to win and projects a 32-26 Bulldogs victory, which matches the six-point spread and sits just under the 58.5 total, but sees no value in the game lines.

Kamario Taylor projects for a big game on the ground.

Both quarterbacks have an edge to score; however, our model especially likes Taylor as a runner. He has an edge to score a touchdown and a 63.9% probability to go over his 49.5 rushing yards.

Bet on College Football in Week 4

Most of the other Top 25 teams are heavy favorites this week, so these six games are likely to do most of the work in reshaping the rankings.

The model mostly agrees with the sportsbooks on the game lines here, with a lot of value found in touchdown markets, two of our more profitable prop markets this season under our new props model.

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