Fresno State vs. Texas State prediction: Why Texas State is favored to win in college football Week 11 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Fresno State vs. Texas State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Texas State a 79.8% chance of beating Fresno State. Our predicted final score has Texas State winning 34-24. According to our model, Texas State (-9.5) has a 52.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 59.5 points has a 50.3% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Fresno State +9.5 (+106) / Texas State -9.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Fresno State +326, Texas State -335
• Total: Over/Under 59.5 (+100/-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Texas State -9.5 @ 52¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Texas State @ 77¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 59.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Texas State to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Texas State and Fresno State at UFCU Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:00 PM ET.

• Who: Fresno State vs. Texas State
• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00 PM PT
• Venue: UFCU Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Texas State, with a 79.8% win probability, will likely beat Fresno State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary college football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.