Tarleton State vs. West Florida prediction: Why Tarleton State is favored to win in college football Week 11 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Tarleton State vs. West Florida, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Tarleton State an 85.8% chance of defeating West Florida. Our predicted final score has Tarleton State winning 38-21. According to our model, Tarleton State (-14.5) has a 53.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 61.5-point over/under has a 53.6% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Tarleton State -14.5 (-167) / West Florida +14.5 (+115)
• Moneyline: Tarleton State -590, West Florida +567
• Total: Over/Under 61.5 (-110/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: West Florida +14.5 @ 46¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Tarleton State @ 86¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 61.5 @ -110 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 61.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between West Florida and Tarleton State at PenAir Field is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tarleton State vs. West Florida
• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00 PM PT
• Venue: PenAir Field

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Conclusion

We predict Tarleton State, with an 85.8% win probability, will likely beat West Florida in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary college football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.