Incarnate Word vs. Texas State prediction: Why Texas State is favored to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Incarnate Word vs. Texas State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Texas State a 94.1% chance of defeating Incarnate Word. Our predicted final score has Texas State winning 47-17. According to our model, Incarnate Word (+30.5) has a 50.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 65.5-point over/under has a 52.4% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Incarnate Word +30.5 (-106) / Texas State -30.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Incarnate Word +1650, Texas State -3200
• Total: Over/Under 65.5 (-112/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Incarnate Word +30.5 @ -106 via Caesars
• Moneyline: Texas State @ -3200 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 65.5 @ -112 via BetRivers

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Texas State to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Texas State and Incarnate Word at UFCU Stadium is scheduled to begin at 6:00 PM ET.

• Who: Incarnate Word vs. Texas State
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
• Venue: UFCU Stadium

College football Week 4 promos

Make the most of Dimers' Incarnate Word vs. Texas State predictions by exploring the Bet365 Sportsbook offer below:

Conclusion

We predict Texas State, with a 94.1% win probability, will likely beat Incarnate Word in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.