Kewan Lacy and Austin Simmons face former teams in Ole Miss vs. Missouri in Week 7

There may be no game that embodies the transfer portal era of college football more than Missouri vs. Ole Miss in Week 7.

Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons and Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy line up against the teams that originally recruited them and where they began their college careers in 2024, briefly teammates during the 2025 season, setting up one of Week 7's most interesting college football betting narratives.

Ole Miss is a 5.5-point favorite with a game total of 58.5, and the Dimers model gives the Rebels a 67.6% chance to win, but the college football player props market tells the more interesting story.

We have one of the clearest edges on the board in Lacy’s touchdown markets, and a longshot angle on Simmons showing up the team that didn't see him as starter material.

How the transfer portal built this matchup

The last few cycles made the transfer portal the main way college football rosters get built. Over 4,000 players entered the pool in the 2024-25 cycle, the most since the portal launched in 2018. Per the NCAA, entries fell by nearly a quarter once schools began paying players directly.

Fewer players are moving now, but the ones who do are often chasing a starting job, precisely what led Lacy and Simmons to their current programs.

Austin Simmons: from Ole Miss backup to Missouri starter

Simmons spent two seasons in Oxford and never held the starting job for long.

He backed up Jaxson Dart in 2024 and after opening the 2025 season as the starter, an ankle injury against Kentucky in Week 2 opened the door for Trinidad Chambliss, who is still under center for the Rebels.

Simmons entered the portal in January and joined Missouri just a few days later.

On Saturday, he faces Chambliss, the quarterback who replaced him, in the stadium where he once took the field as a starter. Safe to say he will be motivated at the very least.

Our only edge on Simmons is to score a touchdown, carrying just a 23.8% probability.

Simmons is a pocket passer. He hasn’t run for a touchdown this season and has one rushing score in his career, which came at Ole Miss. But the market is implying his probability of scoring at under 20%, a fair bit off where we have him.

A projected 26 points for Missouri could mean plenty of red-zone trips, and a quarterback near the goal line always has a chance to keep it himself. This is a longshot, but with a real edge behind it.

Kewan Lacy: a transfer success story

Lacy committed to Missouri and ran just 23 times for 104 yards as a freshman in 2024 before transferring to Ole Miss.

In Oxford, he became the focal point of the offense. He ran for 1,567 yards, the third-most in the nation, and scored an SEC-best 24 total touchdowns in 2025, and he passed on a portal pursuit from Lane Kiffin at LSU to return for 2026.

He's scored in all four games he’s played this season, with one multi-touchdown game. His role in the passing game has stayed small, as he's caught more than two passes only once and gone under his receiving yards line in three of four games.

He gets multiple edges from the Dimers model in both of those areas this week.

At -190, the market implies about a 65.5% chance that Lacy scores. Dimers projects 74.6%, which lines up with a back who has scored every time out and gets the bulk of the work near the goal line on an offense projected to put up 32 points.

But the multi-touchdown market is where we see the most value. +310 odds imply about 24.4%, nearly 12 percentage points below our 35.9% projection.

This bet also falls into our Sweet Spot, the edge range and bet type where the model has historically shown positive ROI.

Our edges on his receiving unders go right along with how he's trending this season. With only one game over two catches and three unders on his yardage line, the model makes Lacy a strong favorite to stay quiet as a receiver.

For longshots, there are two more touchdown markets that carry smaller edges. Lacy to score first sits at 18.3% (2.9% edge, +550), and three or more touchdowns at 11.4% (3.7% edge, +1200).

Missouri vs. Ole Miss betting outlook

Both sides of the game in regard to the total and spread are close to the market, so the clearer value sits with the players as outlined above. You can compare every price across books on Dimers’ college football player props page.

Dimers’ models refresh daily with the latest injuries, weather changes, and news. Dimers Pro unlocks unlimited best bets and props across the full Week 7 slate, plus unlimited player projections, and you can cancel or pause anytime.

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