North Texas vs. Tulsa prediction: Why North Texas is favored to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of North Texas vs. Tulsa, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives North Texas a 56.9% chance of defeating Tulsa. Our predicted final score has North Texas winning 29-26. According to our model, Tulsa (+2.5) has a 50.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 56.5-point over/under has a 51.7% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: North Texas -2.5 (-114) / Tulsa +2.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: North Texas -139, Tulsa +125
• Total: Over/Under 56.5 (-110/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Tulsa +2.5 @ -102 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: North Texas @ -139 via Caesars
• Total: Under 56.5 @ -104 via FanDuel

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 56.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Thursday's college football matchup between Tulsa and North Texas at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium is scheduled to start at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: North Texas vs. Tulsa
• Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict North Texas, with a 56.9% win probability, will likely beat Tulsa in Thursday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.