South Dakota State vs. Illinois State prediction: Why South Dakota State is favored to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of South Dakota State vs. Illinois State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives South Dakota State a 50.8% chance of defeating Illinois State. Our predicted final score has South Dakota State winning 26-25. According to our model, Illinois State (+2.5) has a 53.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 51.5-point over/under has a 51.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: South Dakota State -2.5 (-113) / Illinois State +2.5 (-109)
• Moneyline: South Dakota State -121, Illinois State +102
• Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-105/-114)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Illinois State +2.5 @ -109 via Caesars
• Moneyline: Illinois State @ +102 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 51.5 @ -105 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Illinois State +2.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Illinois State and South Dakota State at Hancock Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: South Dakota State vs. Illinois State
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Hancock Stadium

College football Week 5 promos

Make the most of Dimers' South Dakota State vs. Illinois State predictions by exploring the Bet365 Sportsbook offer below:

Conclusion

We predict South Dakota State, with a 50.8% win probability, will likely beat Illinois State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.