SMU vs. Louisville prediction favors Louisville to win in college football Week 3 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of SMU vs. Louisville, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Louisville a 53.6% chance of defeating Southern Methodist. Our predicted final score has Louisville winning 30-28. According to our model, Louisville (-1.5) has a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 58.5 points has a 50.7% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: SMU +1.5 (-105) / Louisville -1.5 (-109)
• Moneyline: SMU +105, Louisville -118
• Total: Over/Under 58.5 (-110/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Louisville -1.5 @ -109 via Caesars
• Moneyline: Louisville @ -118 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 58.5 @ -108 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Louisville to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Louisville and SMU at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium is scheduled to commence at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Southern Methodist vs. Louisville
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Louisville, with a 53.6% win probability, will likely beat Southern Methodist in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.