Sep 25, 2026
Guardians vs. Royals prediction: Cleveland favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/25/2026]
Read Article Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 54.5% win probability for the Padres at Petco Park.
The San Diego Padres will square off with the Arizona Diamondbacks, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Petco Park on Friday, starting at 9:40 PM ET.
The Padres will start Casey Mize (6-9, 3.96 ERA), while the Diamondbacks have opted for Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.72 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Padres a slight edge with a 54.5% win probability over the Diamondbacks.
This article offers a complete Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction, including best bets and picks.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Diamondbacks and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Padres a 54.5% chance of defeating the Diamondbacks. According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 63.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55.7% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-178) / Padres -1.5 (+170)
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +117, Padres -122
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-104/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Padres -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Padres @ 55¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Padres and Diamondbacks at Petco Park is scheduled to begin at 9:40 PM ET.
- Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Friday, September 25, 2026
- Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Padres, with a 54.5% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Every Bet, Every Game, Every Day Every plan unlocks every model, tool and insight, only the billing term changes.
MOST FLEXIBLE
Monthly billed monthly
$29.99
Month to month Pay as you go RECOMMENDED
6 Months one payment
$119.99 $149.99
6 months $20 per month Save $30.00 · 20% LIMITED TIME OFFER BEST VALUE
Annual first year
$169.99 $199.99
12 months $14.17 per month Save $30.00 · 15% LIMITED TIME OFFER Every plan includes
Full site access
iOS & Android app
AI bet assistant
Unlimited picks & predictions
Unlimited best bets & props
Unlimited player projections
Private Discord community
Cancel or pause anytime
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
