Sep 25, 2026
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Read Article Reds vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 55.9% win probability for the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.
The Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds will lock horns in MLB action at Rogers Centre on Friday, starting at 7:07 PM ET.
José Soriano (12-8, 3.72 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Blue Jays, pitting him against Nick Lodolo (3-6, 5.04 ERA) for the Reds.
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Blue Jays as the most likely winner in this Reds vs. Blue Jays prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Reds vs. Blue Jays prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Blue Jays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Blue Jays a 55.9% chance of beating the Reds. According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 60.1% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 57.1% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Reds +1.5 (-170) / Blue Jays -1.5 (+167)
- Moneyline: Reds +127, Blue Jays -121
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-108/+108)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Blue Jays -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Reds @ 44¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 52¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB action between the Blue Jays and Reds at Rogers Centre is scheduled to commence at 7:07 PM ET.
- Who: Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Date: Friday, September 25, 2026
- Time: 7:07 PM ET/4:07PM PT
- Venue: Rogers Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Blue Jays, with a 55.9% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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