Orioles vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [9/16/2026]

The New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Citi Field on Wednesday, starting at 7:10 PM ET.

The Mets will have Xzavion Curry (0-0, 3.44 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Orioles have opted for Chris Bassitt (7-5, 4.88 ERA).

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 54.9% win probability over the Orioles.

This article offers a complete Orioles vs. Mets prediction, including best bets and picks.

Orioles vs. Mets prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB game between the Orioles and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Mets a 54.9% chance of beating the Orioles. According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 65.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 9-run over/under has a 53.8% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Orioles -1.5 (+170) / Mets +1.5 (-170)
• Moneyline: Orioles +104, Mets -106
• Total: Over/Under 9 (+100/+101)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Mets +1.5 @ 63¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Mets @ 51¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 9 @ +100 via bet365

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Orioles at Citi Field is scheduled to commence at 7:10 PM ET.

• Who: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets
• Date: Wednesday, September 16, 2026
• Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
• Venue: Citi Field

Conclusion

We predict the Mets, with a 54.9% win probability, will likely beat the Orioles in Wednesday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.