MLB picks today: Wednesday's MLB best bets include Rays vs. Yankees play [9/23/2026]

Rays vs. Yankees Over 7 runs (-105)

• Edge: 7.5%
• Probability: 58.8%
• Matchup: Rays vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 7 runs in Rays vs. Yankees at -105 odds. A 58.8% probability produces an edge of 7.5%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Over 7.5 runs (+115)

• Edge: 7.0%
• Probability: 53.5%
• Matchup: Guardians vs. Red Sox (7:10PM ET)

Guardians vs. Red Sox over 7.5 runs carries a 7.0% edge and a probability of 53.5% at 47¢ odds, according to our model.

Brewers vs. Phillies Over 7.5 runs (+106)

• Edge: 6.8%
• Probability: 55.4%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)

Brewers vs. Phillies Over 7.5 runs at 49¢ odds shows a 6.8% edge, supported by a 55.4% probability in simulations.

Athletics ML (+120)

• Edge: 6.0%
• Probability: 51.5%
• Matchup: Angels vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET)

A 6.0% edge and 51.5% probability makes Athletics at the moneyline a value play in the Angels vs. Athletics matchup, per our model.

Mets vs. Rangers Over 7.5 runs (-108)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 57.5%
• Matchup: Mets vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

Mets vs. Rangers Over 7.5 runs at 52¢ presents a 5.6% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 57.5%.

Marlins vs. Cubs Over 7 runs (-105)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 56.7%
• Matchup: Marlins vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 7 runs in Marlins vs. Cubs at -105, supported by an edge of 5.5%.

Reds vs. Braves Over 7.5 runs (+105)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 53.9%
• Matchup: Reds vs. Braves (7:15PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Reds vs. Braves Over 7.5 runs at +105. A 53.9% probability produces a 5.1% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Athletics +1.5 (-133)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 61.9%
• Matchup: Angels vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET)

A 4.8% edge on a 61.9% probability makes Athletics +1.5 at 57¢a solid value play in today's Angels vs. Athletics matchup.

Phillies ML (+133)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 47.7%
• Matchup: Brewers vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)

Our model projects value on Phillies to win at 43¢. A 47.7% probability produces a 4.6% edge, making Phillies the favorable ML play in today's matchup.

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Over 11.5 runs (+113)

• Edge: 4.3%
• Probability: 51.2%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Over 11.5 runs at 47¢ shows a 51.2% probability and a 4.3% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Wednesday, 9/23/2026

As of 5:32AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [9/23/2026]

• Nationals vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET, Wednesday)
• Twins vs. Giants (3:45PM ET, Wednesday)
• Brewers vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET, Wednesday)
• Cardinals vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET, Wednesday)
• Rays vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Wednesday)
• Guardians vs. Red Sox (7:10PM ET, Wednesday)
• Reds vs. Braves (7:15PM ET, Wednesday)
• White Sox vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Wednesday)
• Marlins vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET, Wednesday)
• Mets vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET, Wednesday)
• D-Backs vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Wednesday)
• Angels vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET, Wednesday)
• Padres vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET, Wednesday)
• Astros vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET, Wednesday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for September 23, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7 runs in the Rays vs. Yankees matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Guardians vs. Red Sox matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are based on current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.