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Read Article Guardians vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Monday's Game 1 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 58.2% win probability for the Rays at Tropicana Field.
The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians will lock horns in MLB action at Tropicana Field on Monday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will start on the mound for the Rays, up against Foster Griffin (1-0, 3.38 ERA) for the Guardians.
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Rays as the most likely winner in this Guardians vs. Rays prediction for Game 1.
This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Drew Rasmussen's pitching projections.
Guardians vs. Rays prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Monday's MLB game between the Guardians and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Rays a 58.2% chance of defeating the Guardians in Game 1 of the series. According to our model, the Guardians (+1.5) have a 59.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 6.5 runs has a 58.1% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-141) / Rays -1.5 (+138)
- Moneyline: Guardians +150, Rays -153
- Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-106/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet for Game 1
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Guardians +1.5 @ 59¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Guardians @ +150 via BetRivers
- Total: Over 6.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Monday's MLB Game 1 between the Rays and Guardians at Tropicana Field is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Monday, October 12, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rays, with a 58.2% win probability, will likely beat the Guardians in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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