MLB picks today: Friday's MLB best bets include Guardians vs. Royals play [9/25/2026]

Guardians vs. Royals Over 7.5 runs (+122)

• Edge: 6.7%
• Probability: 51.7%
• Matchup: Guardians vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Over 7.5 runs in Guardians vs. Royals at 45¢ odds. A 51.7% probability produces an edge of 6.7%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Braves vs. Marlins Over 7.5 runs (-113)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 59.5%
• Matchup: Braves vs. Marlins (7:10PM ET)

Braves vs. Marlins over 7.5 runs carries a 6.5% edge and a probability of 59.5% at 53¢ odds, according to our model.

Rangers vs. Twins Over 7.5 runs (+117)

• Edge: 6.4%
• Probability: 52.5%
• Matchup: Rangers vs. Twins (8:10PM ET)

Rangers vs. Twins Over 7.5 runs at 46¢ odds shows a 6.4% edge, supported by a 52.5% probability in simulations.

Rays vs. Phillies over 6.5 runs (-106)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 57.1%
• Matchup: Rays vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)

A 5.7% edge and 57.1% probability make Rays vs. Phillies over 6.5 runs a value play in the Rays vs. Phillies matchup, per our model.

Reds vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs (-108)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 57.3%
• Matchup: Reds vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

Reds vs. Blue Jays Over 7.5 runs at 52¢ presents a 5.3% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 57.3%.

Royals ML (+127)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 49%
• Matchup: Guardians vs. Royals (7:40PM ET)

Our model finds value on Royals to win at 44¢, supported by an edge of 4.9%.

Pirates vs. Tigers Over 7.5 runs (-108)

• Edge: 4.7%
• Probability: 56.7%
• Matchup: Pirates vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Pirates vs. Tigers Over 7.5 runs at 52¢. A 56.7% probability produces a 4.7% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Dodgers vs. Giants Over 7.5 runs (+106)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 53.1%
• Matchup: Dodgers vs. Giants (10:15PM ET)

A 4.6% edge on a 53.1% probability makes Over 7.5 runs at 49¢a solid value play in today's Dodgers vs. Giants matchup.

Astros vs. AthleticsOver 9.5 runs (+122)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 49.5%
• Matchup: Astros vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET)

Our model projects value on Over 9.5 runs at 45¢. A 49.5% probability produces a 4.4% edge, making the Over the favorable side in today's matchup.

Blue Jays -1.5 (+167)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 41.4%
• Matchup: Reds vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Blue Jays -1.5 at 37¢ shows a 41.4% probability and a 4.0% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Friday, 9/25/2026

As of 10:32AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [9/25/2026]

• Pirates vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• Rays vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET, Friday)
• Reds vs. Blue Jays (7:07PM ET, Friday)
• Braves vs. Marlins (7:10PM ET, Friday)
• Cardinals vs. Brewers (7:40PM ET, Friday)
• Rockies vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET, Friday)
• Guardians vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Friday)
• Rangers vs. Twins (8:10PM ET, Friday)
• D-Backs vs. Padres (9:40PM ET, Friday)
• Astros vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET, Friday)
• Angels vs. Mariners (10:10PM ET, Friday)
• Dodgers vs. Giants (10:15PM ET, Friday)

Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for September 25, 2026, featuring plays such as over 7.5 runs in the Guardians vs. Royals matchup and over 7.5 runs in the Braves vs. Marlins matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.