Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +1050 pick for Wednesday [9/16/2026]

Our MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, September 16, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.

Wednesday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run bets today.

Home run predictions for September 16, 2026

See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1050.

• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 21.0% probability
• Fernando Tatis (Padres): 20.6%
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 20.3%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 19.3%
• Manny Machado (Padres): 19.2%
• Juan Soto (Mets): 17.8%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.5%
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 17.4%
• Jackson Merrill (Padres): 17.2%
• Kyle Tucker (Dodgers): 16.8%

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 21.0% chance to go yard, followed by Fernando Tatis (20.6%) and Kyle Schwarber (20.3%).

Cal Raleigh and Manny Machado are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Wednesday's home run picks [9/16/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Carson Kelly (Cubs) to hit a home run

• Probability: 11.6%
• Odds: +1050
• Edge: 2.9%
• Pitching matchup: JR Ritchie
• More game projections: Braves vs. Cubs prediction (7:40 PM EDT)

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Chicago slugger Carson Kelly rates as a value play at +1050 with BetRivers, showing a 2.9% edge.

Set to face JR Ritchie in tonight's Braves-Cubs matchup, the data supports Kelly as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of eight home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 16, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis and Kyle Schwarber projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Carson Kelly who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.9% edge at +1050 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Wednesday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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