Sep 10, 2026
MLB picks today: Thursday's MLB best bets include Rays vs. Braves play [9/10/2026]
Read Article MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Cristian Javier [9/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get MLB player props today with projections for Thursday's games.
Dimers' MLB player props are live for September 10, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Cristian Javier, Justin Crawford and Nick Martinez.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously to analyze every matchup—including Rays vs. Braves and Rockies vs. Yankees—and surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop picks for Thursday, 9/10
Sourced from 25+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for September 10, ranked by probability.
Cristian Javier over 3.5 strikeouts (-140)
- Edge: 5.5%
- Probability: 63.9%
- Game: Astros vs. Phillies (1:05PM ET)
Our model has found value on Houston's Cristian Javier over 3.5 strikeouts. A probability of 63.9% gives this play an edge of 5.5% at -140 odds.
Justin Crawford to get a hit (-138)
- Edge: 5.2%
- Probability: 63.2%
- Game: Astros vs. Phillies (1:05PM ET)
Justin Crawford’s to get a hit prop shows a 63.2% probability and an 5.2% edge at -138 odds, according to our model.
Nick Martinez over 5.5 hits allowed (-110)
- Edge: 9.9%
- Probability: 62.3%
- Game: Rays vs. Braves (12:15PM ET)
The data highlights value on Nick Martinez over 5.5 hits allowed, with simulations showing a 62.3% probability and a 9.9% edge at -110.
Nick Martinez over 17.5 outs recorded (-114)
- Edge: 7.6%
- Probability: 60.9%
- Game: Rays vs. Braves (12:15PM ET)
Our model finds value on Nick Martinez over 17.5 outs recorded, with a 60.9% probability and an edge of 7.6% at -114 odds.
Logan Gilbert under 6.5 strikeouts (-119)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 59.2%
- Game: Rangers vs. Mariners (4:10PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Logan Gilbert under 6.5 strikeouts for Seattle, showing an edge of 4.8% at -119 odds.
Nick Martinez over 2.5 earned runs (-117)
- Edge: 2.9%
- Probability: 56.8%
- Game: Rays vs. Braves (12:15PM ET)
Nick Martinez’s earned runs prop shows an edge of 2.9% at -117 odds, supported by a 56.8% probability according to our model.
Ezequiel Tovar to get a hit (-101)
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 53.3%
- Game: Rockies vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Ezequiel Tovar to get a hit for Colorado, with a 53.3% probability and a 3.1% edge at -101 odds.
Logan Gilbert under 17.5 outs recorded (+123)
- Edge: 6.4%
- Probability: 51.2%
- Game: Rangers vs. Mariners (4:10PM ET)
The data shows value on Logan Gilbert under 17.5 outs recorded, supported by a 51.2% probability at +123 odds and an edge of 6.4%.
Martín Pérez over 2.5 earned runs (+121)
- Edge: 5.2%
- Probability: 50.4%
- Game: Rays vs. Braves (12:15PM ET)
A 5.2% edge on the over 17.5 earned runs line makes Martín Pérez a value play in Rays vs. Braves, supported by a 50.4% probability at +121 odds.
Zack Wheeler under 17.5 outs recorded (+127)
- Edge: 5.0%
- Probability: 49.0%
- Game: Astros vs. Phillies (1:05PM ET)
Simulations show value on Zack Wheeler under 17.5 outs recorded here, with a 49.0% probability and 5.0% edge at +127 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Thursday, September 10, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 3:20AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros vs. Phillies | Cristian Javier o3.5 strikeouts | -140 @ DraftKings | 5.5% | 63.9% |
| Astros vs. Phillies | Justin Crawford to get a hit | -138 @ DraftKings | 5.2% | 63.2% |
| Rays vs. Braves | Nick Martinez o5.5 hits allowed | -110 @ DraftKings | 7.6% | 60.9% |
| Rays vs. Braves | Nick Martinez o17.5 outs recorded | -114 @ FanDuel | 7.6% | 60.9% |
| Rangers vs. Mariners | Logan Gilbert u6.5 strikeouts | -119 @ DraftKings | 4.8% | 59.2% |
| Rays vs. Braves | Nick Martinez o2.5 earned runs | -117 @ DraftKings | 2.9% | 56.8% |
| Rockies vs. Yankees | Ezequiel Tovar to get a hit | -101 @ DraftKings | 3.1% | 53.3% |
| Rangers vs. Mariners | Logan Gilbert u17.5 outs recorded | +123 @ DraftKings | 6.4% | 51.2% |
| Rays vs. Braves | Martín Pérez o2.5 earned runs | +121 @ DraftKings | 5.2% | 50.4% |
| Astros vs. Phillies | Zack Wheeler u17.5 outs recorded | +127 @ DraftKings | 5.0% | 49.0% |
Conclusion
For September 10, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Cristian Javier, Justin Crawford and Nick Martinez. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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