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Read Article Mets vs. Guardians prediction: Why Cleveland is favored to win Tuesday's MLB matchup [8/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians predictions for MLB Tuesday.
The Cleveland Guardians and New York Mets will lock horns in MLB action at Progressive Field on Tuesday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.
The Guardians will send Joey Cantillo (8-6, 3.88 ERA) to the mound, up against Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.42 ERA) for the Mets.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Guardians a slight edge with a 51.3% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's Mets vs. Guardians matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Guardians prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Guardians, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Guardians a 51.3% chance of beating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 65.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 53.9% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Guardians odds [8/4/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-165) | -1.5 (+167) |
| Moneyline | +127 | -126 |
| Total | o7.5 (+113) | u7.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Guardians picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -165 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +127 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | +113 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Guardians game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's MLB game between the Guardians and Mets at Progressive Field is scheduled to start at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Date: Tuesday, August 4, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: Progressive Field
Conclusion
We predict the Guardians, with a 51.3% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Tuesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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