Sep 26, 2026
Reds vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/26/2026]
Read Article Mets vs. Nationals prediction: Why Mets are favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 53.5% win probability for the Mets at Nationals Park.
The Washington Nationals and New York Mets will meet in MLB action at Nationals Park on Saturday, starting at 12:35 PM ET.
The Nationals will have Connelly Early (7-5, 3.44 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Jonah Tong (2-2, 4.21 ERA) for the Mets.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 53.5% win probability over the Nationals.
This article offers a complete Mets vs. Nationals prediction, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Nationals prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's MLB game between the Mets and Nationals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mets a 53.5% chance of defeating the Nationals. According to our model, the Nationals (+1.5) have a 58.0% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 50.3% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+160) / Nationals +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Mets +104, Nationals +114
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+106/-106)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets -1.5 @ 38¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Mets @ 49¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Saturday's MLB action between the Nationals and Mets at Nationals Park is scheduled to commence at 12:35 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Time: 12:35 PM ET/9:35AM PT
- Venue: Nationals Park
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 53.5% win probability, will likely beat the Nationals in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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