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Read Article Yankees vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Why Arizona is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 51.4% win probability for the Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees will lock horns in MLB action at Chase Field on Friday, starting at 9:40 PM ET.
The Diamondbacks will start Eduardo Rodriguez (15-6, 2.62 ERA), up against Gerrit Cole (8-9, 3.67 ERA) for the Yankees.
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge with a 51.4% win probability over the Yankees.
This article offers a complete Yankees vs. Diamondbacks prediction, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's MLB game between the Yankees and Diamondbacks, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Diamondbacks a 51.4% chance of beating the Yankees. According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 62.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 60.8% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+163) / Diamondbacks +1.5 (-170)
- Moneyline: Yankees +104, Diamondbacks -104
- Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-106/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 @ 38¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Yankees @ 49¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 7.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB game between the Diamondbacks and Yankees at Chase Field is scheduled to start at 9:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date: Friday, September 18, 2026
- Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
- Venue: Chase Field
Conclusion
We predict the Diamondbacks, with a 51.4% win probability, will likely beat the Yankees in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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