Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/18/2026]

The New York Mets will face the Philadelphia Phillies, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Citi Field on Friday, starting at 7:15 PM ET.

Zac Thornton (4-5, 3.44 ERA) will be on the bump for the Mets, while the Phillies are going with Tim Mayza (3-3, 3.06 ERA).

Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Mets a slight edge with a 52.2% win probability over the Phillies.

This article offers a complete Phillies vs. Mets prediction, including best bets and picks.

Phillies vs. Mets prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB game between the Phillies and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Mets a 52.2% chance of defeating the Phillies. According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 63.1% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 53.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-198) / Mets -1.5 (+166)
• Moneyline: Phillies +113, Mets -110
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-104/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Mets -1.5 @ 38¢ via Kalshi
• Moneyline: Phillies @ 47¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ 51¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Friday's MLB game between the Mets and Phillies at Citi Field is scheduled to commence at 7:15 PM ET.

• Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
• Date: Friday, September 18, 2026
• Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15PM PT
• Venue: Citi Field

Conclusion

We predict the Mets, with a 52.2% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Friday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.