Phillies vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/19/2026]

The New York Mets will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in MLB action at Citi Field on Saturday, beginning at 4:10 PM ET.

The Mets will send Christian Scott (4-5, 3.76 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Andrew Painter (3-9, 5.54 ERA) for the Phillies.

Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Mets as the most likely winner in this Phillies vs. Mets prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Phillies vs. Mets prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's MLB game between the Phillies and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mets a 55.2% chance of defeating the Phillies. According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 61.9% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of eight runs has a 54.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Phillies +1.5 (-190) / Mets -1.5 (+174)
• Moneyline: Phillies +113, Mets -117
• Total: Over/Under 8 (-105/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Mets -1.5 @ 36¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Mets @ 54¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 8 @ -105 via bet365

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Saturday's MLB action between the Mets and Phillies at Citi Field is scheduled to begin at 4:10 PM ET.

• Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
• Venue: Citi Field

Conclusion

We predict the Mets, with a 55.2% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Saturday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.