New York City vs. CF Montreal prediction, odds, MLS Cup first round picks [10/31/2026]

NY City and Montreal are scheduled to meet in the MLS Cup first round at Yankee Stadium on Saturday, starting at 2:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced MLS model projects NY City as the most likely winner in this NY City vs. Montreal prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

New York City vs. CF Montreal prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's MLS game between NY City and Montreal, forming part of our MLS predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model indicates a 67.5% chance of NY City winning, a 13.4% chance for Montreal, and a 19.0% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 57.9% chance of going over., according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLS odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Montreal +614, NY City -213
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+159)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet for MLS Cup first round

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: NY City @ -213 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +159 via Kalshi

According to our MLS best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 NY City win being the most probable:

• NY City 2-0 Montreal (11.5% probability)
• NY City 1-0 Montreal (10.7%)
• NY City 2-1 Montreal (9.8%)

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's MLS game between NY City and Montreal in MLS at Yankee Stadium is scheduled to start at 2:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York City vs. CF Montreal
• Date: Saturday, October 31, 2026
• Time: 2:00 PM ET/11:00 AM PT
• Venue: Yankee Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, NY City has a 67.5% win probability on Saturday, Montreal has a 13.4% win probability, and there is a 19.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLS prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.