NBA player props today: Thursday's best props include Alex Sarr [11/12/2026]

Alex Sarr over 3.5 rebounds (57¢)

• Edge: 11.3%
• Probability: 67.8%
• Projection: 7.1
• Game: Pistons vs. Wizards (7:00PM ET)

Our model has found value on Wizards' Alex Sarr over 3.5 rebounds. A probability of 67.8% gives this play an edge of 11.3% at 57¢ odds.

Paul Reed over 10.5 points (-108)

• Edge: 9.5%
• Probability: 61.4%
• Projection: 16.3
• Game: Pistons vs. Wizards (7:00PM ET)

Paul Reed’s points prop shows a 9.5% edge at -108 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 16.3 points on the over 10.5 line.

Jalen Green over 13.5 points (-109)

• Edge: 5.2%
• Probability: 57.4%
• Projection: 17.1
• Game: Hornets vs. Suns (9:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Jalen Green over 13.5 points, with simulations showing a 57.4% probability and a 5.2% edge at -109.

Paul Reed over 7.5 rebounds (+102)

• Edge: 7.8%
• Probability: 57.4%
• Projection: 8.8
• Game: Pistons vs. Wizards (7:00PM ET)

Our model projects Paul Reed to put up 8.8 rebounds today, creating an edge of 7.8% on the over 7.5 line at +102 odds.

Alex Sarr over 9.5 points (51¢)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 56.3%
• Projection: 12.5
• Game: Pistons vs. Wizards (7:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Alex Sarr over 9.5 points for Wizards, showing an edge of 5.8% at 51¢ odds.

Ausar Thompson over 0.5 blocks (44¢)

• Edge: 11.2%
• Probability: 55.2%
• Projection: 1.0
• Game: Pistons vs. Wizards (7:00PM ET)

Ausar Thompson’s blocks prop shows an edge of 11.2% at 44¢ odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.0 today.

Naz Reid under 19.5 points (45¢)

• Edge: 9.2%
• Probability: 54.7%
• Projection: 17.3
• Game: Hornets vs. Suns (9:00PM ET)

Our model projects Naz Reid for 17.3 points for Hornets, creating an edge of 9.2% on under 19.5 at 45¢ odds.

Ausar Thompson over 4.5 assists (+117)

• Edge: 5.5%
• Probability: 51.6%
• Projection: 4.8
• Game: Pistons vs. Wizards (7:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Ausar Thompson for 4.8 assists, creating value on the over 4.5 line at +117 odds and a 5.5% edge.

VJ Edgecombe over 14.5 points (45¢)

• Edge: 6.3%
• Probability: 51.3%
• Projection: 15.1
• Game: Raptors vs. 76ers (7:00PM ET)

A 6.3% edge on the over 4.5 points line makes VJ Edgecombe a value play in Raptors vs. 76ers, with our model projecting him for 15.1 points at 45¢ odds.

Ayo Dosunmu over 4.5 rebounds (+122)

• Edge: 5.9%
• Probability: 50.9%
• Projection: 4.7
• Game: Mavericks vs. Timberwolves (8:00PM ET)

Simulations project Ayo Dosunmu for 4.7 rebounds here, creating a 5.9% edge on the over 4.5 line at +122 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Thursday, November 12, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 7:47AM ET:

Conclusion

For November 12, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Alex Sarr, Paul Reed and Jalen Green. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.