Suns vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' Suns vs. Thunder prediction for Monday, October 26, 2026 including our projected final score and probabilities for the moneyline, spread, and game total.
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NBA
Suns
78
:
89
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Thunder
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TEAM1234T
Suns
33 45 0 0 78
Thunder
38 51 0 0 89
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Suns
    17%
  • Thunder
    83%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Suns
33 45 0 0 78
Thunder
38 51 0 0 89
Q3 7:48 Suns makes two point jump shot
Q3 8:41 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
Q2 1:54 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q2 2:16 Thunder makes two point tip layup
Q2 2:20 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q2 2:36 Suns misses two point jump shot
Q2 2:50 Bennett Stirtz misses three point jump shot
Q2 2:54 Alex Caruso misses three point stepback jump shot
Q2 3:04 Suns misses three point jump shot
Q2 3:23 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q3 Q4
  1. Q3 1:34
    Josh Dix shooting foul (Miles Bridges draws the foul)
  2. Q3 2:40
    Ryan Dunn defensive rebound
  3. Q3 4:30
    Khaman Maluach personal foul
  4. Q3 7:48
    +2
    Suns makes two point jump shot
    58-71
  5. Q3 8:41
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
    58-71
  6. Q3 9:15
    +1
    Jalen Green makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    58-71
  7. Q2 1:21
    Ajay Mitchell personal foul
  8. Q2 1:21
    Ajay Mitchell turnover (offensive foul)
  9. Q2 1:34
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  10. Q2 1:34
    Thunder lineup change (Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jared McCain)
  11. Q2 1:34
    Dillon Brooks misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  12. Q2 1:34
    Ajay Mitchell shooting foul (Dillon Brooks draws the foul)
  13. Q2 1:34
    Dillon Brooks misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  14. Q2 1:34
    Suns offensive rebound
  15. Q2 1:54
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    78-89
  16. Q2 2:07
    Dillon Brooks misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  17. Q2 2:07
    Suns offensive rebound
  18. Q2 2:07
    Thunder personal foul
  19. Q2 2:16
    +2
    Thunder makes two point tip layup
    46-59
  20. Q2 2:20
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  21. Q2 2:20
    Thunder offensive rebound
  22. Q2 2:36
    Suns misses two point jump shot
  23. Q2 2:36
    Aday Mara defensive rebound
  24. Q2 2:50
    Bennett Stirtz misses three point jump shot
  25. Q2 2:50
    Miles Bridges defensive rebound
  26. Q2 2:54
    Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
  27. Q2 2:54
    Alex Caruso misses three point stepback jump shot
  28. Q2 3:04
    Suns misses three point jump shot
  29. Q2 3:23
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    44-47
  30. Q2 3:31
    Collin Gillespie misses three point jump shot
  31. Q2 3:31
    Alex Caruso defensive rebound
  32. Q2 3:44
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point turnaround jump shot
    47-61
  33. Q2 4:05
    +2
    Miles Bridges makes two point jump shot (Dillon Brooks assists)
    47-61
  34. Q2 4:05
    Aday Mara shooting foul (Miles Bridges draws the foul)
  35. Q2 4:05
    Miles Bridges misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  36. Q2 4:05
    Alex Caruso defensive rebound
  37. Q2 4:21
    Suns 60 second timeout
  38. Q2 4:23
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    44-47
  39. Q2 4:30
    Miles Bridges turnover
  40. Q2 4:45
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
    47-61
  41. Q2 4:45
    Dillon Brooks personal foul
  42. Q2 4:45
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    47-61
  43. Q2 4:53
    Suns misses two point jump shot
  44. Q2 4:53
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  45. Q2 5:05
    Suns personal foul
  46. Q2 5:05
    Suns lineup change (Jalen Green, Devin Booker, Miles Bridges, Collin Gillespie, Dillon Brooks)
  47. Q2 5:05
    +1
    Aday Mara makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    47-61
  48. Q2 5:05
    +1
    Aday Mara makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    47-61
  49. Q2 5:20
    +3
    Dillon Brooks makes three point jump shot (Jalen Green assists)
    58-71
  50. Q2 5:42
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  51. Q2 5:42
    Khaman Maluach defensive rebound
  52. Q2 5:54
    Aday Mara offensive rebound
  53. Q2 5:54
    Bennett Stirtz misses three point pullup jump shot
  54. Q2 6:09
    Khaman Maluach turnover
  55. Q2 6:12
    Aday Mara turnover (Khaman Maluach steals)
  56. Q2 6:26
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul (Khaman Maluach draws the foul)
  57. Q2 6:26
    +1
    Khaman Maluach makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    33-38
  58. Q2 6:26
    +1
    Khaman Maluach makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    33-38
  59. Q2 6:26
    Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Bennett Stirtz, Aday Mara, Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  60. Q2 6:35
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive foul (Charge) (Collin Gillespie draws the foul)
  61. Q2 6:35
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (offensive foul)
  62. Q2 6:51
    +2
    Jalen Green makes two point cutting dunk (Khaman Maluach assists)
    33-38
  63. Q2 7:07
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    47-61
  64. Q2 7:12
    Stoppage (Other)
  65. Q2 7:21
    Suns personal foul
  66. Q2 7:21
    Thunder lineup change (Josh Dix, Kenrich Williams, Bennett Stirtz, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Hartenstein)
  67. Q2 7:21
    Suns lineup change (Jalen Green, Khaman Maluach, Devin Booker, Collin Gillespie, Dillon Brooks)
  68. Q2 7:21
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  69. Q2 7:30
    +2
    Jalen Green makes two point jump shot (Devin Booker assists)
    33-38
  70. Q2 7:40
    +2
    Ajay Mitchell makes two point jump shot
    33-38
  71. Q2 7:40
    Thunder lineup change (Josh Dix, Bennett Stirtz, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein)
  72. Q2 7:40
    Suns lineup change (Jalen Green, Khaman Maluach, Devin Booker, Luke Kennard, Dillon Brooks)
  73. Q2 7:40
    Khaman Maluach shooting foul (Ajay Mitchell draws the foul)
  74. Q2 7:40
    +1
    Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    33-38
  75. Q2 7:40
    Thunder lineup change (Josh Dix, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jared McCain)
  76. Q2 7:40
    Suns lineup change (Jalen Green, Khaman Maluach, Ryan Dunn, Miles Bridges, Luke Kennard)
  77. Q2 7:53
    +2
    Miles Bridges makes two point cutting dunk (Jalen Green assists)
    33-38
  78. Q2 8:07
    +2
    Isaiah Hartenstein makes two point tip layup
    33-38
  79. Q2 8:09
    Isaiah Hartenstein misses two point jump shot
  80. Q2 8:09
    Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
  81. Q2 8:12
    Josh Dix misses two point running layup
  82. Q2 8:12
    Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
  83. Q2 8:17
    Jalen Green turnover (Jared McCain steals)
  84. Q2 8:27
    Jared McCain turnover
  85. Q2 8:30
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  86. Q2 8:30
    Thunder offensive rebound
  87. Q2 8:30
    Stoppage (Other)
  88. Q2 8:49
    +3
    Luke Kennard makes three point jump shot
    33-38
  89. Q2 9:05
    Jaylin Williams misses three point jump shot
  90. Q2 9:05
    Miles Bridges defensive rebound
  91. Q2 9:21
    Miles Bridges personal foul (Ajay Mitchell draws the foul)
  92. Q2 9:21
    Miles Bridges turnover (offensive foul)
  93. Q2 9:21
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  94. Q2 9:35
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    30-38
  95. Q2 9:50
    +3
    Ryan Dunn makes three point jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)
    30-38
  96. Q2 9:51
    Thunder turnover
  97. Q2 9:56
    Suns misses two point jump shot
  98. Q2 9:56
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  99. Q2 10:11
    Ajay Mitchell misses three point jump shot
  100. Q2 10:11
    Ryan Dunn defensive rebound
  101. Q2 10:18
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  102. Q2 10:18
    Thunder offensive rebound
  103. Q2 10:18
    Luke Kennard personal foul (Ajay Mitchell draws the foul)
  104. Q2 10:18
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  105. Q2 10:18
    Suns lineup change (Jalen Green, Khaman Maluach, Ryan Dunn, Miles Bridges, Luke Kennard)
  106. Q2 10:18
    Thunder lineup change (Josh Dix, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jared McCain)
  107. Q2 10:38
    Suns misses three point jump shot
  108. Q2 10:38
    Aday Mara defensive rebound
  109. Q2 10:47
    Josh Dix turnover
  110. Q2 10:56
    Suns turnover
  111. Q2 11:00
    Suns misses two point jump shot
  112. Q2 11:00
    Suns offensive rebound
  113. Q2 11:00
    Stoppage (Other)
  114. Q2 11:23
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    27-35
  115. Q2 11:35
    Aday Mara defensive rebound
  116. Q2 11:35
    Suns misses three point jump shot
  117. Q2 11:45
    Aday Mara turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
  118. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  119. Q1 00:00
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  120. Q1 00:00
    Aday Mara offensive rebound
  121. Q2 12:00
    Suns lineup change (Jordan Goodwin, Ryan Dunn, Miles Bridges, Luke Kennard, Collin Gillespie)
  122. Q2 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Josh Dix, Aday Mara, Ajay Mitchell, Jaylin Williams, Jared McCain)
  123. Q1 00:06
    +3
    Suns makes three point jump shot
    33-38
  124. Q1 00:13
    Suns misses three point jump shot
  125. Q1 00:13
    Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound
  126. Q1 00:35
    Suns personal foul
  127. Q1 00:35
    +1
    Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    30-38
  128. Q1 00:35
    +1
    Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    30-38
  129. Q1 00:51
    Suns personal foul
  130. Q1 00:51
    Duop Reath turnover (offensive foul)
  131. Q1 00:56
    +2
    Aday Mara makes two point jump shot
    27-33
  132. Q1 1:04
    Suns turnover
  133. Q1 1:26
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    27-33
  134. Q1 1:26
    Suns personal foul
  135. Q1 1:26
    +1
    Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    27-33
  136. Q1 1:34
    Collin Gillespie turnover
  137. Q1 1:44
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    27-33
  138. Q1 1:53
    Aday Mara shooting foul (Duop Reath draws the foul)
  139. Q1 1:53
    +1
    Duop Reath makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    22-24
  140. Q1 1:53
    Suns 60 second timeout
  141. Q1 1:53
    Thunder lineup change (Bennett Stirtz, Aday Mara, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams)
  142. Q1 1:53
    Suns lineup change (Jordan Goodwin, Miles Bridges, Luke Kennard, Collin Gillespie, Duop Reath)
  143. Q1 1:53
    +1
    Duop Reath makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    27-33
  144. Q1 1:53
    Suns lineup change (Jordan Goodwin, Devin Booker, Collin Gillespie, Duop Reath, Dillon Brooks)
  145. Q1 1:53
    Thunder lineup change (Bennett Stirtz, Aday Mara, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  146. Q1 1:56
    Duop Reath offensive rebound
  147. Q1 1:56
    Suns misses three point jump shot
  148. Q1 2:00
    Aday Mara blocks Dillon Brooks's two point jump shot
  149. Q1 2:00
    Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound
  150. Q1 2:17
    Aday Mara misses two point jump shot
  151. Q1 2:17
    Collin Gillespie defensive rebound
  152. Q1 2:28
    +3
    Collin Gillespie makes three point pullup jump shot (Devin Booker assists)
    22-24
  153. Q1 2:46
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    27-33
  154. Q1 3:10
    +3
    Suns makes three point jump shot
    22-24
  155. Q1 3:21
    +3
    Alex Caruso makes three point jump shot (Aday Mara assists)
    22-24
  156. Q1 3:36
    +3
    Dillon Brooks makes three point jump shot (Collin Gillespie assists)
    22-24
  157. Q1 3:56
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    22-24
  158. Q1 4:12
    Thunder lineup change (Bennett Stirtz, Aday Mara, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
  159. Q1 4:12
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  160. Q1 4:12
    Thunder offensive rebound
  161. Q1 4:12
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  162. Q1 4:12
    Suns lineup change (Jordan Goodwin, Devin Booker, Collin Gillespie, Duop Reath, Dillon Brooks)
  163. Q1 4:19
    Dillon Brooks misses three point jump shot
  164. Q1 4:19
    Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
  165. Q1 4:27
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover
  166. Q1 4:40
    +2
    Suns makes two point jump shot
    13-15
  167. Q1 4:59
    Thunder violation
  168. Q1 5:02
    +3
    Jaylin Williams makes three point jump shot (Jared McCain assists)
    11-15
Box Score
Suns
PosPlayerPts
Thunder
PosPlayerPts

Suns vs. Thunder prediction & analysis

Game overview: NBA Monday

  • Teams: Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Date: Monday, October 26, 2026
  • Tip-off: 8:00PM ET
  • Venue: Paycom Center

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Suns (+8.5, -102), Thunder (-8.5, +100)
  • Moneyline: Suns +300, Thunder -300
  • Total (Over/Under): 220.5 points (-113/+108)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Suns: 24.3%
  • Thunder: 75.7%

Our NBA win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team's offensive and defensive performance, along with factors such as recent form, player availability, home-court advantage, and matchup dynamics.

The model uses these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, spread, total points, and the final score.

Projected Final Score

Our model projects the final score for this NBA matchup as Suns 106 and Thunder 114.

This is a margin of 8 points against a spread of 8.5, and a projected total of 220 points against a market line of 220.5.

A projected score is the middle of a range, not a forecast of the exact result. Use it to see how the game is likely to play out and how each side projects against the spread.

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Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Suns a win probability of 24.3%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 75.7%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Suns in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Monday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

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