Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula prediction, odds, picks for US Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's Sabalenka-Pegula women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Sabalenka a 62% chance of beating Pegula in the US Open 2026. Additionally, Sabalenka has a 60% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Sabalenka (-2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Jessica Pegula +168, Aryna Sabalenka -189
• First Set: Sabalenka -164, Pegula +130

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Pegula @ +168 via DraftKings
• First Set: Pegula @ -128 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Jessica Pegula to win.

Although Pegula is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The US Open 2026 match between Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula
• Date: Thursday, September 10, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Tournament: US Open Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Semifinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Aryna Sabalenka, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat Jessica Pegula at the US Open 2026.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.