Melbourne Demons vs. Carlton Blues prediction: Why Demons are favored to win AFL Finals week one matchup [8/29/2026]

The Melbourne Demons will square off with the Carlton Blues in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, commencing at 5:35 AM ET.

Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Demons as the most likely winner in this Blues vs. Demons prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Demons vs. Blues prediction: Who will win AFL Finals week one matchup?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's AFL game between the Blues and Demons, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Demons a 51.3% chance of defeating the Blues.

According to our model, the Demons (+1.5) have a 53.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 178.5 points has a 51.7% chance of staying under.

Carlton vs. Melbourne odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Blues -120, Demons -105

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Blues vs. Demons picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Demons +1.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Demons @ -105 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 178.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Demons to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Demons vs. Blues game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Demons and Blues at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 5:35 AM ET.

• Who: Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons
• Date: Saturday, August 29, 2026
• Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Demons, with a 51.3% win probability, will likely beat the Blues in Saturday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.