Sep 4, 2026
Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions prediction: Lions favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 26 matchup [9/5/2026]
Read Article Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs prediction: Why Crows are favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 26 matchup [9/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 71.3% win probability for the Crows at Adelaide Oval.
AFL action continues on Saturday at 5:35 AM ET as the Western Bulldogs lock horns with the Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval.
Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Crows as the most likely winner in this Bulldogs vs. Crows prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Crows vs. Bulldogs prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's AFL matchup between the Bulldogs and Crows, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Crows a 71.3% chance of beating the Bulldogs.
According to our model, the Bulldogs (+18.5) have a 52.0% chance of covering the spread, while the 169.5-point over/under has a 51.2% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Bulldogs +225, Crows -294
- Total: Over/Under 169.5 (-115/-115)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Bulldogs +18.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Bulldogs @ +225 via DraftKings
- Total: Under 169.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 169.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first bounce details
Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Crows and Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to commence at 5:35 AM ET.
- Who: Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows
- Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
- Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
- Venue: Adelaide Oval
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Crows, with a 71.3% win probability, will likely beat the Bulldogs in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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