Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions prediction favors Lions to win Saturday's AFL Round 29 matchup [9/26/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's AFL matchup between the Lions and Dockers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Lions a 50.1% chance of defeating the Dockers. According to our model, the Dockers (+7.5) have a 60.0% chance of covering the spread, while the 180.5-point over/under has a 50.9% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Lions -154, Dockers +125
• Total: Over/Under 180.5 (-115/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dockers +7.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Dockers @ +125 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 180.5 @ -110 via DraftKings

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dockers +7.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first bounce details

Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Dockers and Lions at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 12:30 AM ET.

• Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Fremantle Dockers
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 12:30 AM ET/9:30PM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 50.1% win probability, will likely beat the Dockers in Saturday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary AFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.