Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks prediction: Dockers favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 26 matchup [9/3/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Hawks and Dockers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Dockers a 69.3% chance of beating the Hawks.

According to our model, the Dockers (-14.5) have a 51.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 164.5-point over/under has a 50.9% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Hawks +170, Dockers -222
• Total: Over/Under 164.5 (-115/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dockers -14.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Dockers @ -222 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 164.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Dockers to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first bounce details

Thursday's Australian rules football game between the Dockers and Hawks at Optus Stadium is scheduled to commence at 6:10 AM ET.

• Who: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Fremantle Dockers
• Date: Thursday, September 3, 2026
• Time: 6:10 AM ET/3:10AM PT
• Venue: Optus Stadium

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Dockers, with a 69.3% win probability, will likely beat the Hawks in Thursday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.