Sep 4, 2026
Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs prediction: Why Crows are favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 26 matchup [9/5/2026]
Read Article Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions prediction: Lions favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 26 matchup [9/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 62.7% win probability for the Lions at Sydney Cricket Ground.
AFL action continues on Saturday at 1:15 AM ET as the favored Brisbane Lions take on the Sydney Swans at Sydney Cricket Ground.
Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Lions as the most likely winner in this Lions vs. Swans prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Swans vs. Lions prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's AFL game between the Lions and Swans, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lions a 62.7% chance of beating the Swans.
According to our model, the Swans (+24.5) have a 68.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 194.5-point over/under has a 51.8% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Lions -345, Swans +265
- Total: Over/Under 194.5 (-115/-115)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Swans +24.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Swans @ +265 via DraftKings
- Total: Under 194.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Swans +24.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first bounce details
Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Swans and Lions at Sydney Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 1:15 AM ET.
- Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans
- Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
- Time: 1:15 AM ET/10:15PM PT
- Venue: Sydney Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 62.7% win probability, will likely beat the Swans in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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