Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Magpies prediction: Bulldogs favored to win AFL Finals week one matchup [8/28/2026]

The Western Bulldogs and Collingwood Magpies are scheduled to meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Marvel Stadium on Friday, starting at 5:40 AM ET.

Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Bulldogs as the most likely winner in this Magpies vs. Bulldogs prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Bulldogs vs. Magpies prediction: Who will win AFL Finals week one matchup?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's AFL matchup between the Magpies and Bulldogs, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Bulldogs a 53.8% chance of beating the Magpies.

According to our model, the Magpies (+3.5) have a 50.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 170.5 points has a 50.7% chance of staying under.

Collingwood vs. Bulldogs odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Magpies +105, Bulldogs -130

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Magpies vs. Bulldogs picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Magpies +3.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Magpies @ +105 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 170.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 170.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Bulldogs vs. Magpies game-day updates and essential details

Friday's Australian rules football matchup between the Bulldogs and Magpies at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to commence at 5:40 AM ET.

• Who: Collingwood Magpies vs. Western Bulldogs
• Date: Friday, August 28, 2026
• Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
• Venue: Marvel Stadium

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Bulldogs, with a 53.8% win probability, will likely beat the Magpies in Friday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.