Bills vs. Vikings prediction: Why Buffalo is favored to win MNF Week 9 [2026]

Since our Bills-Vikings predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's NFL matchup between the Bills and Vikings, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Bills a 63.8% chance of beating the Vikings in Week 9 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 25-21.

Key factors favoring the Bills:

• Bills offense
• Vikings offense
• Bills QB matchup

According to our model, the Bills (-3.5) have a 51.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 45.5-point over/under has a 54.4% chance of going over.

Key factors making the over more likely are::

• Playing conditions
• Bills recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 9 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Bills -3.5 (+106) / Vikings +3.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Bills -178, Vikings +174
• Total: Over/Under 45.5 (-104/+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bills -3.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Bills @ 64¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 45.5 @ 51¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 45.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Bills vs. Vikings TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Vikings?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for MNF, Josh Allen is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs. Vikings.

Our projections give Allen a 53.9% chance of scoring a TD at U.S. Bank Stadium, while the quarterback is a 14.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (QB): 53.9% probability
• James Cook (RB): 46.8%
• DJ Moore (WR): 26.1%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 20.2%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 19.6%

Minnesota Vikings

• Justin Jefferson (WR): 43.1% prob.
• Jordan Mason (RB): 30.7%
• T.J. Hockenson (TE): 28.6%
• Jordan Addison (WR): 25.4%
• Aaron Jones (RB): 24.1%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (QB): 14.3% prob.
• James Cook (RB): 11.7%
• DJ Moore (WR): 5.6%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 4.2%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 4.0%

Minnesota Vikings

• Justin Jefferson (WR): 10.8% prob.
• Jordan Mason (RB): 7.0%
• T.J. Hockenson (TE): 6.5%
• Jordan Addison (WR): 5.6%
• Aaron Jones (RB): 5.3%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Vikings. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 9 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 233 passing yards, while the Vikings' Carson Wentz is expected to throw for 218 yards.

Bills rushing

• James Cook: 91 yds
• Josh Allen: 36 yds
• Ty Johnson: 14 yds

Vikings rushing

• Jordan Mason: 50 yds
• Aaron Jones: 37 yds
• Carson Wentz: 11 yds

Bills receiving

• DJ Moore: 53 yds
• Khalil Shakir: 45 yds
• Dalton Kincaid: 43 yds
• Keon Coleman: 32 yds
• Ty Johnson: 17 yds

Vikings receiving

• Justin Jefferson: 83 yds
• Jordan Addison: 47 yds
• T.J. Hockenson: 44 yds
• Aaron Jones: 14 yds
• Ben Yurosek: 10 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 9 game between the Vikings and Bills at U.S. Bank Stadium is scheduled to begin at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings
• Date: Monday, November 9, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15 PM PT
• Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
• Tournament details: 2026 Emirates NBA Cup

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Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 63.8% win probability, will likely beat the Vikings in Week 9 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.