NFL Week 9 betting recap: Where the Dimers model dominated and why it pays to follow

Week 9 of NFL betting is in the books, which means it's time to take a look at where the Dimers model was most dialed in this weekend.

From a great read on the Bengals-Falcons game in Madrid to cashing our SNF parlay, the Dimers data found a number of profitable betting angles.

If you were leaning on our NFL predictions from the Dimers model, you'd have caught several of these outcomes coming from a mile away, all sourced from our exclusive Dimers Pro insights.

✅ Giants A 2-0 start for our NFL Best Bets 💪 (third play in the replies)

— Dimers (@dimerscom) November 8, 2026

Dimers Pro remains the top betting resource in your pocket this NFL season, and when paired with the Dimers App, you'll keep finding these kinds of edges week in and week out.

Let's see where the Dimers model was most dialed in from this weekend's slate.

Dimers' spreads get back in the positive with 9-7 week

After our first week hitting at 50% in Week 8, our model got back on track with a 9-7 day, hitting on several edge plays featured in our content throughout the week.

You can check every game's spread prediction at closing and our model's projected final score in our NFL Game Predictions; just change to Week 9 in the dropdown menu and click through each game.

How do we determine our model's pick on the spread?

We check each NFL game prediction, and wherever our model favors a side above 50% against the spread, or finds value on a team at the closing number, that's our pick.

In games where the Dimers model predicted a 50/50 split, we check our predicted final score for the tiebreaker, as it will always land on one side of the spread.

Notable model picks that cashed this week included the Bengals, Giants and Chiefs, all covering behind Dimers' stronger numbers.

Dimers' top call-outs

It's rarely a chalk week betting on the NFL, and Week 9 was no different, with these performances backing up the numbers we had on the board and covered as favorable betting angles via our best NFL bets and best NFL player props.

Bengals win, Chase scores in Spain

Headlining our Week 9 betting guide, Joe Burrow and the Bengals carried one of our best edges of the weekend, getting value on the ML, to cover the spread and on Ja'Marr Chase to score a touchdown.

Cincy rolled to a win, doubling up the Falcons 34-17.

Isaiah Likely continues TD domination

Also featured in our Week 9 betting guide was Giants TE Isaiah Likely with some touchdown value. Likely had yet to find his stride with JJ McCarthy but ended up catching a TD pass from Jameis Winston after he entered the game for the injured QB.

Puka destroys the Commanders

No one projected for more receiving yards in Week 9 than Puka Nacua, and he carried the third-highest TD probability of any WR entering the weekend.

We called out a great matchup vs. the Commanders, leading to Puka smashing his projection and turning in 150 yards with a touchdown.

Colston Loveland cashed our SNF parlay

It was looking like another bad beat in Bears vs. Bucs on SNF, after cashing our first two legs on Bucky Irving and Colston Loveland sitting on just 10 yards late in the 4th.

Loveland comes up BIG to cash the +375 parlay 🥳

— Dimers (@dimerscom) November 9, 2026

Then, Caleb Williams delivered two late passes, including a 30+ yard catch, and he hit our mark of 50+, cashing our SNF SGP in style.

What the Dimers model said about these standout performances

Some of the biggest player and team performances of the week - here's what our model predicted around those outcomes and where you might have found an edge in our NFL player projections:

Kenneth Walker's hat trick vs. the Jets

For the fifth time this season, Kenneth Walker scored multiple touchdowns, a season-high 3 against the Jets.

Walker cashed in our multi-TD round robin, and was the fifth-most likely player to score three times on Sunday at 8.2.%

Week 9's most likely multi-TD scorers.

Interestingly, Walker has only scored 0 or 2+ touchdowns in games, never just once.

The only underdog to win in Week 9

The Packers' 45-27 upset over the Patriots represented the only game in all of Week 9 in which the favorite did not win.

At closing, we had a 54.7% probability that the Packers would cover +3.5 and a 45.7% chance as of kickoff that they would win outright.

Where we missed in Week 9

Our multi-TD round robin was looking good for a second straight week, but came up short. We cashed two TDs on Kenneth Walker, with three of our four other targets (Javonte Williams, Puka Nacua, Jonah Coleman) all scoring one touchdown.

We had some big TD value on Justin Jefferson on MNF, but Carson Wentz couldn't rekindle the magic they shared in Week 1.

Not every prediction will be a winner, but if you trust the data long-term and rely on statistical decisions, you're more likely to find success over time.

Dimers' 2026-27 NFL betting resources for Week 10

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NFL Best Bets: Our top picks for every individual matchup
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win the Super Bowl?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league