Lions vs. Bills prediction favors Buffalo to win ‘TNF’ Week 2 [2026]

The Buffalo Bills will take on the Detroit Lions in NFL Week 2 action at Highmark Stadium on Thursday, beginning at 8:15 PM ET.

Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Bills as the most likely winner in this Lions vs. Bills prediction.

This article offers further insights into this week's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Lions vs. Bills prediction and odds

Since our Lions-Bills predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's NFL matchup between the Lions and Bills, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Bills a 68.7% chance of defeating the Lions in Week 2 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 29-23.

Key factors favoring the Bills:

• Buffalo Bills Offensive Efficiency
• Buffalo Bills Power Rankings
• Detroit Lions QB Change / Form

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Lions and Bills each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 54.5-point over/under has a 54.7% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Weather / Conditions
• QB Ratings

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 2 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Lions +5.5 (-104) / Bills -5.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Lions +208, Bills -213
• Total: Over/Under 54.5 (-106/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bills -5.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Bills @ 68¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Under 54.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 54.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Lions vs. Bills TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Lions vs. Bills?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime TD in Lions vs. Bills.

Our projections give Gibbs a 70.7% chance of getting in for six at Highmark Stadium, while the running back is a 17.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 70.7% probability
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 42.9%
• Jameson Williams (WR): 31.2%
• Sam LaPorta (TE): 28.0%
• Isaac TeSlaa (WR): 14.3%

Buffalo Bills

• James Cook (RB): 57.3% prob.
• Josh Allen (QB): 49.2%
• DJ Moore (WR): 35.7%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 31.7%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 25.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 17.6% prob.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 8.0%
• Jameson Williams (WR): 5.4%
• Sam LaPorta (TE): 4.7%
• Isaac TeSlaa (WR): 2.2%

Buffalo Bills

• James Cook (RB): 12.9% prob.
• Josh Allen (QB): 10.3%
• DJ Moore (WR): 6.7%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 5.8%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 4.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Lions and Bills. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 2 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Lions' Jared Goff is projected for 260 passing yards, while the Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 251 yards.

Lions rushing

• Jahmyr Gibbs: 92 yds
• Sione Vaki: 11 yds
• Jared Goff: 3 yds

Bills rushing

• James Cook: 88 yds
• Josh Allen: 35 yds
• Ray Davis: 16 yds

Lions receiving

• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 85 yds
• Jameson Williams: 62 yds
• Sam LaPorta: 48 yds
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 34 yds
• Isaac TeSlaa: 24 yds

Bills receiving

• DJ Moore: 68 yds
• Dalton Kincaid: 55 yds
• Khalil Shakir: 49 yds
• James Cook: 22 yds
• Keon Coleman: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 2 action between the Bills and Lions at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills
• Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: Highmark Stadium

NFL Week 2 promo

Using our full NFL Week 1 promo code guide, you can make the most of Dimers' Lions vs. Bills predictions with the below DraftKings Sportsbook offer:

Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 68.7% win probability, will likely beat the Lions in Week 2 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.