NFL Week 2 betting recap: Where the Dimers model dominated and why it pays to follow

Week 2 of NFL betting is in the books, and the Dimers model backed up its opening week with another strong showing across spreads, touchdowns and player props.

While scoring was much lower than a near-record-breaking Week 1, plenty of players showed up, from Jaxson Smith-Njigba and CeeDee Lamb to the Panthers and Browns putting on some of the most surprising performances of the weekend.

If you were leaning on our NFL predictions from the Dimers model, you'd have caught several of these outcomes coming from a mile away, all sourced from our exclusive Dimers Pro insights.

Dimers Pro remains the top betting resource in your pocket this NFL season, and when paired with the Dimers App, you'll keep finding these kinds of edges week in and week out.

Let's see where the Dimers model was most dialed in from this weekend's slate.

Dimers' spread picks go 11-5 for the second straight week

Our spread picks went 11-5 in Week 2, matching Week 1's mark.

How do we determine our model's "pick" in each game?

We check each game's prediction, and wherever our model favors a side above 50% against the spread, or finds value on a team at the closing number, that's our pick. In games where the Dimers model predicted a 50/50 split, we check our predicted final score for the tiebreaker, as it will always land on one side of the spread.

Notable model picks that cashed this week included the Bengals, Rams and Cowboys, all covering behind Dimers' numbers.

Touchdown picks go 4-1 from the Top 5

Four of Dimers' Top 5 touchdown probabilities found the end zone in Week 2, pushing our combined mark to 9 of 10 across the first two weeks of the season for Sunday's Top 5.

You won't find much value in these high probabilities, but you will find the players our model backs with the most confidence.

Lions vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football was a perfect display, with 7 of Dimers' Top 10 touchdown scorers getting in the end zone, including our top 4 overall.

Who cashed a TD parlay on TNF?

7 of Dimers' Top 10 probabilities found the end zone 🤑

Drop a winner, and we'll give away a free month of Dimers Pro to one of you via a random draw on Sunday morning 👇 pic.twitter.com/VBr8xS5zxI

— Dimers (@dimerscom) September 18, 2026

Unfortunately, our TD Round Robin didn't have the same luck as Week 1, as we cashed Bhayshul Tuten to score, but lost two other players to injury early in their games, putting the round robin in an uphill battle before it really got going.

Dimers' biggest wins

It's rarely a chalk week betting on the NFL, and Week 2 was no different, with these performances backing up the numbers we had on the board via our best NFL bets and best NFL player props.

Bengals thump Texans

A winner from our NFL Best Bets video for Week 2, the Bengals shrugged off any midweek injury concerns about Joe Burrow, holding Houston to just 6 points and easily covering the spread and winning outright, both best bets identified by the Dimers model.

Browns upset Baker and the Bucs

A 3-hour weather delay may have changed things a bit, but the Buccaneers blew a 10-point lead, falling to 0-2, the same record Mayfield has in "revenge" games vs. Cleveland in his career.

An unlikely result, but one the Dimers model caught with an edge in our Browns vs. Bucs predictions, giving Cleveland a 20% win probability against the best available price on both sportsbook and prediction markets.

Admin sure is surprised the Browns have won a game but our prediction model wasn't.

We spotted the mispriced line on several exchanges and sportsbooks as Cleveland blow up Survivor pools all over the country. pic.twitter.com/X0dM8QdPmZ

— Dimers (@dimerscom) September 20, 2026

No Puka, no problem for Los Angeles

Ruled out late on Monday night while trending towards doubtful all Sunday, Puka Nacua's absence didn't hinder the Rams in a much-needed bounceback game after their Australia debacle.

The spread shortened by a point, but the Dimers model remained firmly in the Rams' camp, finding an edge on nearly every platform with the public getting behind Jaxon Dart and the Giants.

Our best value from Rams-Giants.

Injuries on both sides introduced even higher variance, but that's the benefit of leaning on strong data-backed predictions.

What the Dimers model said about these standout performances

The biggest player and team performances of the week - here's what our model predicted around those outcomes and where you might have found an edge in our NFL player projections:

Panthers blow the doors off

Carolina's 34-3 win over Atlanta was the biggest margin of the week at 31 points.

At just a 2.5-point favorite, the Dimers model had the Panthers at a 66% win probability, roughly 10% higher higher than the market was pricing in at -132 odds.

JSN's three-touchdown performance

The biggest individual performance of the weekend belonged to Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who went off for three touchdowns (9 catches, 155 yards) as Drew Lock, starting for an injured Sam Darnold, connected with him from all over the field, including an early 82-yard score, in Seattle's 31-7 win over Arizona.

Dimers had JSN at 1.2% to reach three touchdowns, the 8th-highest probability among all receivers on the board.

The 2-TD WR showcase

The top of Dimers' WR projections was busy over the weekend, as CeeDee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Davante Adams all scored 2+ touchdowns.

All four were the Dimers' most likely wide receivers to do so, each sitting between 10.1% and 11.2%.

Our top WR projections from Week 2.

Adams jumped all the way to No. 1 for the week after Puka Nacua was ruled out ahead of the Rams' Monday night game against the Giants, and he made the most of the expanded role.

Find this week's top-projected performers at every position via our NFL Player Projections Hub.

Where we missed in Week 2

Of course, not every call lands.

We went 1-2 on our NFL Best Bets video after opening the season 2-1 in Week 1.

The Cardinals were thoroughly outmatched even against a backup Drew Lock under center for Seattle, falling 31-7.

And the Jaguars couldn't get much going through the air, with Jaylen Waddle's 138-yard day proving too much as Miami handled Jacksonville, and Bhayshul Tuten's touchdown was one of the lone bright spots in the loss.

From our Top 5 touchdowns, it was Bijan Robinson, our second-most likely of the whole slate, who fell short in a game where the Falcons were incapable of moving the ball.

Dimers' 2026-27 NFL betting resources for Week 3

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NFL Best Bets: Our top picks for every individual matchup
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win the Super Bowl?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league