Kirk Cousins trade: How have the numbers moved for Fernando Mendoza, the Raiders, and the Vikings?

Kirk Cousins is returning to Minnesota, and Fernando Mendoza is days away from his first NFL start.

The Raiders sent the four-time Pro Bowler (three of those selections with the Vikings) back to Minnesota for a third-round pick before Tuesday's trade deadline. Cousins will swap silver and black for his old purple and gold this Sunday at Lambeau Field, where he tore his Achilles in 2023. Minnesota has changed starting quarterbacks 17 times in 52 games since, most recently with Carson Wentz filling in for the injured Kyler Murray in Monday's 23-6 loss to Buffalo.

The trade clears the way for the Heisman Trophy-winning Mendoza, whom the Raiders picked No. 1 overall in April, the same month they signed Cousins to help ease the rookie's transition. Mendoza has played in one game this season, in relief. He makes his first career start Sunday against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, less than three weeks after coach Klint Kubiak said, "We have a plan. We don't have a timeline for that."

While Cousins is still packing his bags, both Dimers' NFL predictions and NFL player projections models see the swap as a step back for Las Vegas and a small step forward for Minnesota.

How does Fernando Mendoza's first start compare with Kirk Cousins?

Mendoza projects for 202.03 passing yards on 19.91 completions against Seattle, down from the 232.81 yards and 21.50 completions our model had for Cousins in the same matchup.

The rookie QB gets some of that back on the ground, though. His 13.21 projected rushing yards are 8.14 more than Cousins', while his 10.68% anytime touchdown probability sits well above Cousins' 7.92% and roughly level with Seattle's Drew Lock (10.92%).

However, there is little NFL tape behind the projection. Mendoza's only regular-season snaps came late in the Raiders' Oct. 11 loss to the New England Patriots, when he went 6-of-8 for 48 yards. The former Hoosier also inherits an offense that ranks 31st in rushing yards per game (71.3) and last in yards per carry (2.9), which leaves much of the load in Mendoza's hands.

Which Raiders lose the most with Mendoza under center?

Tre Tucker takes the biggest hit. The reliable downfield target for Cousins drops 10.05 projected yards to 33.19, the largest fall of any non-quarterback in either game. While Tucker loses the most yardage, tight end Michael Mayer sees the biggest drop in his touchdown chances, falling 1.98 points to 9.70%, the steepest decline on the Raiders.

Brock Bowers holds up best. He loses 4.55 yards but keeps a 41.30% anytime touchdown probability, still the highest on the team. In the backfield, Ashton Jeanty's touchdown chances barely move, while Mike Washington gives up 4.10 rushing yards as Mendoza's own rushing projection climbs.

Seahawks vs. Raiders prediction: How do the moneyline, spread, and final score move?

Mendoza's first start moves the betting market much further than it moves our calculations. At the time of writing, the spread has jumped from Seattle -3.5 to Seattle -6.5, and the Raiders' moneyline has drifted from +167 to +270, while our win probability for Seattle rises only 1.5 points to 63.0%.

That opens a gap on the Raiders' side. Our model gives Las Vegas a 37.0% chance to win, while +270 implies 27.0%, the largest model-versus-market difference in either game.

Our projected final score moves from 23-20 to Seahawks 24, Raiders 17. That seven-point margin now sits half a point beyond the 6.5-point spread, and the 41-point projected total sits half a point over the 40.5 line, the opposite side of both numbers from before the trade.

Our full Seahawks vs. Raiders prediction has the latest win probabilities, odds, and projected score.

Kirk Cousins back in Minnesota: Who gains in the Vikings' passing game?

Swapping Wentz for Cousins adds 17.63 passing yards and 0.90 completions to Minnesota's quarterback projection at Lambeau Field. The ground game takes a small hit, with Cousins' rushing projection roughly half of Wentz's, though his anytime touchdown probability ticks up to 9.63%.

Every Vikings receiver gains yardage, and touchdown chances shift from the backfield to the passing game. Justin Jefferson adds 2.15 yards to reach 63.34 and stays Minnesota's likeliest scorer at 40.92%. Jordan Addison (+1.62 points) and T.J. Hockenson (+1.61) get the biggest touchdown bumps, with Addison moving above 20%, while Jordan Mason drops 1.97 points to 34.20%.

Vikings vs. Packers prediction: How do the moneyline, spread, and final score move?

Cousins moves the line two points toward Minnesota. The Vikings are now 3.5-point underdogs, down from 5.5, and Green Bay's moneyline has eased from -199 to -156 at the time of writing. Our numbers barely budge, nudging Minnesota's win probability from 32.5% to 33.2%.

Here our data model is less optimistic about the Vikings than the market. Minnesota's +185 moneyline implies 35.1%, above our 33.2%, while Green Bay's -156 implies 60.9%, well below our 66.8%.

Our projected final score moves from 23-18 to Packers 23, Vikings 20, with all of the change on Minnesota's side. That three-point margin sits half a point inside the 3.5-point spread, while the 43-point projected total now sits half a point over the 42.5 line.

On the other sideline, Christian Watson's 48.44% anytime touchdown probability is the highest in the game, and Jordan Love's passing projection edges up 2.62 yards to 246.04 in the updated numbers.

For updated numbers through kickoff, see our full Vikings vs. Packers prediction.

A small lift for Minnesota, a step back for Las Vegas

Of the 13 skill players below, the four Vikings pass catchers are the only ones whose anytime touchdown probability rises.

Tre Tucker and Michael Mayer give up the most with Mendoza under center, while Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson pick up the most with Cousins back.

The quarterback swap moves the odds more than our model

Both quarterback swaps reshape the passing projections, but our win probabilities move by less than two points in either game. Sportsbooks have moved further, shifting each spread by two to three points. The gap is widest in Las Vegas, where our 37.0% win probability for the Raiders sits 10 points above the 27.0% implied by their +270 moneyline at the time of writing.

The two things most likely to move these numbers are who lines up under center for Seattle, where our projections have Drew Lock with Sam Darnold reportedly in danger of missing the game, and how much of the offense the Raiders hand Mendoza in his first start.

Before you bet on these numbers

A couple of things to note:

• Mendoza has thrown eight regular-season passes, so there is very little NFL data behind his projection.
• Our game predictions and player projections update separately, and both can move again before kickoff. Our NFL Best Bets show where the model sees the most value across Week 10.

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