Stars vs. Penguins prediction: Why Dallas is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [10/10/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's NHL game between the Stars and Penguins, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Stars a 56.3% chance of defeating the Penguins. According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 65.6% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 53.7% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Stars -1.5 (+145) / Penguins +1.5 (-159)
• Moneyline: Stars -175, Penguins +152
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+102/-119)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Penguins +1.5 @ -159 via ESPN BET
• Moneyline: Penguins @ +152 via bet365
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -119 via bet365

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Penguins +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Stars vs. Penguins player props

Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Penguins?

According to our model, Wyatt Johnston is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Penguins.

Our projections give Johnston a 40.3% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is an 8.7% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Dallas Stars

• Wyatt Johnston: 40.3% probability
• Jason Robertson: 37.8% probability
• Mikko Rantanen: 32.2% probability
• Roope Hintz: 22.6% probability
• Tyler Seguin: 21.1% probability

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Bryan Rust: 32.8% probability
• Sidney Crosby: 32.1% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 29.6% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 27.1% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 24.4% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Dallas Stars

• Wyatt Johnston: 8.7% probability
• Jason Robertson: 7.9% probability
• Mikko Rantanen: 5.8% probability
• Roope Hintz: 3.8% probability
• Tyler Seguin: 3.7% probability

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Bryan Rust: 6.5% probability
• Sidney Crosby: 6.0% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 5.2% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 4.7% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 4.5% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Saturday's action between the Penguins and Stars at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Stars vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Stars, with a 56.3% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins in Saturday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.