Wild vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [10/8/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Wild and Lightning, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 55.6% chance of defeating the Wild. According to our model, the Wild (+1.5) have a 66.1% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 51.0% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Wild +1.5 (-200) / Lightning -1.5 (+175)
• Moneyline: Wild +130, Lightning -141
• Total: Over/Under 6 (-119/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Wild +1.5 @ -200 via BetMGM
• Moneyline: Wild @ +130 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 6 @ +100 via BetMGM

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Wild vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Wild vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Wild vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Kucherov a 43.4% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.6% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Minnesota Wild

• Kirill Kaprizov: 41.5% probability
• Matt Boldy: 37.3% probability
• Joel Ek: 22.7% probability
• Blake Coleman: 20.6% probability
• Ryan Hartman: 18.6% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 43.4% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 37.5% probability
• Jake Guentzel: 34.7% probability
• Brayden Point: 31.8% probability
• Anthony Cirelli: 25.0% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Minnesota Wild

• Kirill Kaprizov: 8.3% probability
• Matt Boldy: 8.0% probability
• Joel Ek: 3.8% probability
• Blake Coleman: 3.4% probability
• Bobby Brink: 2.8% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 8.6% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 8.0% probability
• Jake Guentzel: 7.5% probability
• Brayden Point: 5.9% probability
• Anthony Cirelli: 4.9% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Thursday's action between the Lightning and Wild at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Minnesota Wild vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 55.6% win probability, will likely beat the Wild in Thursday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.