Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights prediction favors Vegas to win Thursday's NHL matchup [10/8/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Golden Knights a 62.1% chance of beating the Maple Leafs. According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 60.2% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 52.0% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-164) / Golden Knights -1.5 (+150)
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs +155, Golden Knights -164
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-112/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Golden Knights -1.5 @ +150 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Golden Knights @ -164 via ESPN BET
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -104 via FanDuel

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights?

According to our model, Mark Stone is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights.

Our projections give Stone a 36.0% chance of scoring a goal at T-Mobile Arena, while the star is a 7.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 33.3% probability
• William Nylander: 30.7% probability
• John Tavares: 25.9% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 24.7% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 19.9% probability

Vegas Golden Knights

• Mark Stone: 36.0% probability
• Jack Eichel: 32.2% probability
• Mitch Marner: 30.7% probability
• Trevor Connelly: 30.6% probability
• Tomas Hertl: 29.5% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 5.9% probability
• William Nylander: 5.7% probability
• John Tavares: 4.9% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 4.2% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 3.2% probability

Vegas Golden Knights

• Mark Stone: 7.0% probability
• Trevor Connelly: 6.6% probability
• Jack Eichel: 6.2% probability
• Mitch Marner: 5.8% probability
• William Karlsson: 5.2% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Thursday's game between the Golden Knights and Maple Leafs at T-Mobile Arena is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Vegas Golden Knights
• Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Golden Knights, with a 62.1% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs in Thursday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.