Canadiens vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [10/14/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NHL game between the Canadiens and Capitals, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Capitals a 52.8% chance of beating the Canadiens. According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 68.1% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 53.6% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Canadiens +1.5 (-220) / Capitals -1.5 (+217)
• Moneyline: Canadiens +108, Capitals -111
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-108/+106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Capitals -1.5 @ 32¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Capitals @ 53¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 6.5 @ 48¢ via Novig

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Canadiens vs. Capitals player props

Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Capitals?

According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Capitals.

Our projections give Caufield a 43.0% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is an 8.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

• Cole Caufield: 43.0% probability
• Nick Suzuki: 29.4% probability
• Juraj Slafkovsky: 26.4% probability
• Alex Newhook: 21.3% probability
• Chris Kreider: 21.2% probability

Washington Capitals

• Alex Tuch: 29.7% probability
• Tom Wilson: 28.9% probability
• Alex Ovechkin: 25.1% probability
• Jakob Chychrun: 24.2% probability
• Aliaksei Protas: 22.8% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

• Cole Caufield: 8.9% probability
• Nick Suzuki: 6.1% probability
• Juraj Slafkovsky: 5.2% probability
• Chris Kreider: 4.1% probability
• Alex Newhook: 3.5% probability

Washington Capitals

• Tom Wilson: 6.1% probability
• Alex Tuch: 5.2% probability
• Alex Ovechkin: 4.8% probability
• Jakob Chychrun: 4.5% probability
• Aliaksei Protas: 3.9% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Wednesday's game between the Capitals and Canadiens at Capital One Arena is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Wednesday, October 14, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Capitals, with a 52.8% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens in Wednesday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.